Ahead of the third major in 2014, Nick Nemeroff breaks down the leading men’s contenders to watch at Wimbledon, their strengths and their flaws.

Andy Murray

There will be quite a different feel for Andy Murray as he enters Wimbledon this year. For the first time since his original appearance at SW19 back in 2005, Murray will not be constantly asked whether this is the year he will win Wimbledon.

Despite the fact that Murray has claimed the Wimbledon title he so dearly coveted, expectations will only be higher. If the British fans and those around him felt he had the ability to win Wimbledon before 2013, they certainly will feel more attachment to this sentiment as he starts the defense of his title next week.

With Amelie Mauresmo on the scene, it will be interesting to see if Murray develops a greater inclination to move forward and finish points around the net. For the most part, he did most of his heavy lifting from the baseline last year.

The one mouthwatering matchup that many fans would love to see take place on this surface is Murray against Rafael Nadal. Murray and Nadal have only met on clay since Murray won both his Grand Slam titles, Nadal unsurprisingly winning both of those meetings. Murray has yet to beat Nadal on grass and has only won one set in the three previous matches they’ve contested on the surface. But with the offensive framework of Murray’s game amped up and sharply tuned under the tutelage of Ivan Lendl, it’ll be compelling to see if Murray has the goods to beat Nadal at Wimbledon if they end up meeting each other.

Roger Federer

The question of “will Roger Federer win another major?” is thrown around tennis circles ad nauseam. For those in the tennis world, asking this question is about a routine an activity as showering or sleeping. As incessantly as it may be asked, the intrigue surrounding this inquiry never dissolves, and it has escalated leaps and bounds beyond last year’s speculation.

Nothing is set in stone in sports. When asked this question, a good response might be “it’s possible, but it would probably have to be at Wimbledon or the US Open.” The two fastest-playing Grand Slams facilitate Federer’s offensive game and give him the best chance of controlling matches.

The Swiss looked in fine form in Halle, but as 2013 proved, the warm-up tournaments have the capacity to be cruelly deceptive. After winning Halle last year and seemingly reversing the course of his relatively average season, Federer bowed out in the second round of Wimbledon at the hands of Sergiy Stakhovsky.

The other caveat that probably should be applied to the Federer question is that there’s a much better chance of it happening if he doesn’t have to face Nadal. Federer could very well beat Nadal at Wimbledon, but it would take a special performance, so don’t go ahead betting your house and car on it.

Rafael Nadal

Here’s a statistic that’s hard to believe:  Rafael Nadal has lost his last three matches on grass, all against players ranked outside the top 80. Here’s another:  the last time Nadal won a match on grass was in the first round of Wimbledon back in 2012—nearly two years ago.

But it would be absurd to keep Nadal out of the conversation of contenders, even though he hasn’t produced much on grass since reaching the Wimbledon final in 2011. It’s important to remember what preceded Nadal’s recent grass-court shortcomings. Between the years 2006 and 2011, Nadal reached five straight Wimbledon finals, winning two of them including a victory over Roger Federer in the 2008 Wimbledon final. Suffice to say, he can play on grass.

The explanation for Nadal’s results on grass over the last two years really isn’t too complicated. Against Lukas Rosol, there was really nothing Nadal could do. Rosol played the match of his life with an unprecedented level of play, a level of play that he may never equal again. Last year in his first-round match against Steve Darcis, Nadal was clearly not 100 percent and Darcis put forth a virtuoso performance, orchestrating three sets of masterful tennis, using every tactical ploy in the book to exploit Nadal’s weaknesses. Last week in Halle, Dustin Brown went old-school on Nadal, serving and volleying and chipping and charging his way to victory with some added explosives from the back of the court in between. It also didn’t help that Nadal was only five days removed from his victory at Roland Garros.

Generally, Nadal has started running into situations on grass where he has been vulnerable and has faced opponents who are not only inspired but have more options and solutions in terms of how to approach him on the surface.

Novak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic has gone 1-5 in his last six Grand Slam finals. In addition, he has yet to win the French Open and still sits in the No. 2 spot in the ATP world rankings. After Djokovic’s 2011 season, the idea of him losing in five of six major finals at some point would have been hard to believe. But here we are, three years later, and that is the reality.

Assuming Rafael Nadal didn’t play tennis, Wimbledon would be the least likely of the four majors for Djokovic to win. The fact that Djokovic is still going to be the top seed in the tournament and the bookmakers’ favorite to win the tournament speaks volumes to how adaptable his game is to all surfaces.

There are two problems that Djokovic has on grass that the French Open final made visible for all to see. For one, his net game still leaves much to be desired. He botched an inexcusable amount of volleys against Nadal. On grass, opponents will have an easier time prodding Djokovic forward and making him hit volleys.

The other issue for Djokovic’s game is the type of offense he plays. Djokovic prefers to construct points by moving his opponents around for the purpose of creating space and openings. It’s a much more elongated, calculated style of aggression as compared to someone like Federer, who looks to obtain the first strike and flatten out balls as early in the rallies as possible. That style is much more suited to the low-bouncing, swiftly-playing grass courts.

The Field

The last time someone not named Murray, Federer, Djokovic, or Nadal won Wimbledon was in 2002, when Lleyton Hewitt captured the title. Barring some sort of miraculous run of form from someone outside of the Big Four, the Wimbledon trophy isn’t leaving the top.

Most years, Juan Martin Del Potro and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga might be possible “dark horse” candidates. But with Del Potro absent and Tsonga out of sorts, Tomas Berdych is really the only other player with any chance, however small it may be, of winning this tournament. In fact, there are only six players in the tournament—Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, Hewitt, and Berdych—who have played in a Wimbledon final.

Maybe the trend will be halted in years to come, but for now, the Big Four’s reign over Wimbledon will continue.