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Sweet Sixteen (and More): Sony Open Tuesday Preview

Mar 25th 2014

After the women set up their quarterfinal lineups on Monday, the men do the same during a busy Tuesday schedule that features every player remaining in this Masters 1000 draw. 

Rafael Nadal

Rafael Nadal vs. Fabio Fognini:  The world No. 1 will have felt relieved to thrust his early Indian Wells loss behind him with two strong wins in Miami.  Nadal never has won this tournament, but a comfortable draw has boosted his hopes for a deep run.  It would be hard to find two personalities more different than those of Nadal and Fognini, despite their shared Mediterranean origin.  The substance-style divide emerges starkly from the contrast between the disciplined Spaniard and the insouciant Italian.  An emerging threat on clay, Fognini tends to make his hard-court matches more adventurous than necessary and has paid the price by failing to challenge the elite.  

Milos Raonic vs. Benjamin Becker:  Losers don’t come much luckier than Becker, who received direct entry into the Miami main draw when Juan Martin del Potro withdrew for wrist surgery.  Becker even got the benefit of del Potro’s first-round bye before edging past Ryan Harrison and defeating qualifier Aljaz Bedene.  He seeks his first Masters 1000 quarterfinal against a quarterfinalist at Indian Wells, who upset Andy Murray there.  Raonic has stagnated over the last several months since a breakthrough on home soil at the Rogers Cup, where he made his Masters 1000 final debut.  But his towering serve alone should carry him past Becker without needing to add anything extraordinary.

Stanislas Wawrinka vs. Alexandr Dolgopolov:  Fans have wondered sometimes what Dolgopolov could produce if he blended his shot-making talents with a modicum of consistency.  We may have started to find an answer to that question this spring, when he has reached the semifinals or better at three straight tournaments.  That stretch has included victories over two top-five opponents in Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer, victories that should give Dolgopolov confidence to knock off a third in Wawrinka.  After a scorching January effort, the Australian Open champion wavered at Indian Wells and has not looked as dominant as one would expect from a world No. 3 in Miami. 

John Isner vs. Tomas Berdych:  After his semifinal run at Indian Wells, Isner discussed the importance of staying healthy and stringing together solid results throughout the season.  He took an encouraging step in that direction by easing past Nicolas Almagro a round after struggling against Donald Young.  While Berdych has produced an outstanding season so far, highlighted by an Australian Open semifinal appearance, he can be flustered by distinctive playing styles.  Isner’s massive serve places him in that category, and he has won their two meetings on American soil.  Don’t expect many break points, long rallies, or tactical nuances in a match defined by straightforward first-strike tennis. 

Roger Federer

Roger Federer vs. Richard Gasquet:  Nine long years ago, Frenchman announced himself to the tennis world when he stunned Federer in a third-set tiebreak at Monte Carlo in 2005.  That much-discussed victory proved a mirage for Gasquet’s career and for this matchup in particular.  He has defeated Federer only once since then, also on clay.  Resurgent in recent weeks, Federer will seek his fifth win in seven matches against top-10 opponents this year.  The Indian Wells finalist holds a clear edge over Gasquet in most departments other than backhand-to-backhand rallies.  Gasquet’s reactive style should give Federer ample opportunities to attack and showcase his forecourt skills.

Kei Nishikori vs. David Ferrer:  Plenty of parallels link this pair, from their small size and smooth court coverage to their competitive resilience and streamlined two-handed backhands.  Neither Nishikori nor Ferrer wins many points easily, as their five-set battle at the 2008 US Open showed.  Although he lost that epic, the Spaniard has won all seven of their hard-court sets since then.  The last of those meetings came in Miami a year ago, where the surface suits their high-percentage games.  Nishikori stands closer to an upset than he did then, since Ferrer has declined sharply at non-majors since last spring.  The Japanese star impressed with his steady effort against fellow young gun Grigor Dimitrov on Sunday.

Andy Murray vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga:  Triumphs against top-10 opponents have been few and far between for Tsonga over the last two years.  He has lost 21 of his last 24 matches to that group, out of which he has recently fallen.  A flat effort at Indian Wells and a near-loss to Baghdatis in Miami revealed how little the surface suits his fast-court game and temperament.   By contrast, two-time Sony Open champion Murray relishes the extra time that it gives him to locate passing shots and maneuver through rallies.  The aftermath of his split with Ivan Lendl may have left Murray a little at sea, but he has won all seven of his meetings with Tsonga over the last six years, usually with ease.

Novak Djokovic

Tommy Robredo vs. Novak Djokovic:  Handed a walkover into the fourth round, Djokovic has played only one match so far to Robredo’s three.  Last week’s Indian Wells champion showed in 2011 that he can complete the arduous March Masters 1000 double, but he has suffered some early setbacks in Miami before.  Robredo has not faced Djokovic since 2009, but he extended him to a fifth set in their only previous meeting on this surface.  An upset over Federer at last year’s US Open warns against taking the Spanish veteran too lightly.  Djokovic has suffered some odd early exits in Miami, but his controlled baseline aggression matches up well to Robredo’s counterpunching.

Meanwhile, four top-10 women will contest quarterfinals at the Sony Open on Tuesday. 

Serena Williams vs. Angelique Kerber:  Their most recent meeting on an outdoor hard court surprisingly went to the German, able to upset Serena in Cincinnati two years ago.  Serena looked fallible in her first two matches of this tournament, perhaps rusty from injury.  A much stronger performance in the final 16 suggested that she may have started to recapture her rhythm, though, as she often does when tournaments reach the later rounds.  Kerber weathered a tricky three-setter against Ekaterina Makarova, who has troubled her before.  That victory suggests that she too has raised her form from an indifferent start to the tournament.  On the very slow court in Miami, Kerber will have a chance if Serena fails to dominate behind point-starting shots and plays too many rallies in neutral mode.

Maria Sharapova

Maria Sharapova vs. Petra Kvitova:  Each woman rallied from losing the first set to complete comebacks in style on Monday.  Surviving 10 double faults, Sharapova lost just five games over the last two sets but still fell short of Kvitova’s imperious turnaround.  The Czech swept 12 straight games from former No. 1 Ana Ivanovic in one of the tournament’s odder matches.  Fans most remember this matchup for the Wimbledon final that it produced in 2011, which Kvitova won for her only major title.  After that encounter, Sharapova turned the tables on her left-handed nemesis with three 2012 wins.  She will need to improve her uneven form in early 2014 to keep the upper hand over Kvitova in their first North American meeting.  The pair should produce some of the WTA’s most explosive power and breathtaking shot-making—as well as some unsightly misses.

Eight major champions and five world No. 1s take the court in Miami during one of the most star-studded days in the season so far.  Who will embrace the moment?