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Stock Watch: ATP Stars Rising, Falling Before Roland Garros

May 21st 2014

In advance of the French Open getting underway, here is a look at which ATP stocks to buy and sell at Roland Garros after a full spring clay season.

Roberto Bautista Agut

Buy:

Roberto Bautista Agut

The late-blooming Spaniard has had a stellar season, reaching a Masters 1000 semifinal in Rome and the fourth round of the Australian Open, both for the first time in his career. He has a game that translates across surfaces, the mental fortitude to finish off matches, and a very good forehand. With the right draw, we could see Bautista Agut have a nice second-week run and perhaps notch another top-15 scalp or two. He has wins over Juan Martin del Potro, Tomas Berdych, and Tommy Robredo this year.

Santiago Giraldo

This veteran working with fellow talented shot-maker and French Open semifinalist Fernando Gonzalez may have cooled off a bit. But he was having a great run of form before retiring in the Rome opening round as a qualifier. He reached the final in Barcelona and quarterfinals in Madrid, along with two other clay semifinals this season in Vina Del Mar and Houston. Giraldo’s aggressive play can lead to erratic results at times, but that same play allows him to hang in with many a big opponent. He has wins over Robredo, Nicolas Almagro, Andy Murray, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga this season. His best result in Paris was the third round in 2012, but he could make the second week for the first time this year.

Grigor Dimitrov

Now up to a career-high ranking of No. 12, with a 13-3 clay court record this season, the Bulgarian has cemented himself as a top player and could perhaps make the semifinals if things line up right. His notable wins include Milos Raonic, Berdych, and Murray this season alone. Dimitrov reached the semifinals on clay in Rome and won the clay ATP 250 event in Bucharest, along with having won a title this season in Acapulco and reaching the quarterfinals of the Australian Open. In three previous French Open appearances, Dimitrov hasn’t made it past the third round.

Milos Raonic

Raonic has had an intriguing season, winning at least one match in every tournament he has entered but not yet reaching a final. He has never made the second week of the French Open. Raonic is improving on clay, however, and should at least reach the second week this year. Wins over Robredo and Tsonga on clay, and a three-setter against Novak Djokovic in the Rome semifinals suggest he can be dangerous on the surface. He also seems to be peaking at the right time with the trend of quarterfinals in Monte Carlo and semifinals in Rome on his record. Raonic isn’t a world-beater, but he seems like a reliable horse at the moment.

Kei Nishikori

Kei Nishikori

The player from the generation after Djokovic, Nadal, and Murray who has had an even better season than Raonic is Nishikori, who has reached the top 10 for the first time this year and has just one loss on clay this season (by retirement no less) compared to 10 wins. Overall, a tremendous 27-6 record is next to his name this season, and the partnership with Michael Chang seems to be doing the Japanese star wonders. Nishikori may play a blander version of tennis than some big names and lack the weapons and size to bludgeon his opponents, but he’s an accurate, speedy counterpuncher who makes the best of what he brings to the table.

He won the ATP 500 tournament in Barcelona and took a set off Nadal in the Madrid final before becoming injured. Nishikori also has a semifinal in Miami and a title in Memphis on his record, together with a second-week showing at the Aussie Open. Of his six losses, three have come against Djokovic and Nadal, proving he is really only losing to the elite. If they have a bad day at the office, he could pull off an upset. Nishikori has notable wins over David Ferrer (on clay) and Roger Federer this season. He’s one of the top five favorites according to the bookmakers to take the title.

Sell:

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Tsonga has dropped from the top 10 this year. Although he was a semifinalist last year at Roland Garros, his career has been hampered by injuries. He doesn’t seem to be competing at a top-15 level now, for his best clay result this season was a Monte Carlo quarterfinal after winning just two matches. Tsonga doesn’t have many terrible losses, but he’s a serious underdog against top-20 players who are good on clay.

Fabio Fognini

Fognini flirted with making the top 10 before seeing things fall apart this spring clay season as his lack of focus reared its ugly head in multiple matches. He has lost three straight matches going into Roland Garros. Additionally his only notable recent result came in the ATP 250 event in Munich (finalist) against much weaker competition. Fognini is an accomplished clay player, but he’s combustible enough to suffer an upset in round 1 or 2 as a number of his tanking episodes suggest. Additionally, he’s only made it out of the third round once in six Paris appearances.

Tommy Haas

Tommy Haas

A quarterfinalist last year, age is perhaps finally slowing down Haas, as he is struggling to stay healthy going into Roland Garros. Shoulder problems have dogged him, and he retired in his last match in Rome after the first set. He has bad losses to Igor Sijsling, Klizan, and Paolo Lorenzi on clay this year and is just 7-4 on the surface. Haas still can produce a great match, and he still could do well, but he’s not trustworthy right now and could lose early.

Tommy Robredo

A five-time quarterfinalist at Roland Garros, Robredo is just 2-3 in his last five matches on clay and hasn’t had a better result than third round in Monte Carlo. He has losses to Pablo Andujar and Leonardo Mayer, along with a slumping Philipp Kohlschreiber, on clay this year and hasn’t won any marquee matches. It will take the right opponent, but Robredo likely won’t come close to repeating his quarterfinal showing from last year.

Richard Gasquet

Gasquet has had good results at home in France, having reached the fourth round of Roland Garros three years in a row. But he hasn’t played any clay tournaments this season because of a back injury and as a result comes in entirely rusty and without having played well in advance of his injury. This is a bad mixture that could result in a shocking upset in the first couple of rounds. France will have to pin their hopes on some other player.