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Roland Garros Day 1 ATP Preview: Tsonga, Raonic, Janowicz

May 24th 2014

Our series of daily Roland Garros men's previews kicks off with a battle of two Frenchmen on Sunday before featuring a fast-rising talent and a late-career breakthrough.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga v. Edouard Roger-Vasselin

This certainly wasn’t the opening-round matchup Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Edouard Roger-Vasselin, and the French Tennis Federation were hoping for. Nevertheless, the two Frenchman will take to Court Philippe Chatrier seeking a spot in the second round.

Tsonga leads the head-to-head in this matchup 6-0 and has beaten Roger-Vasselin on all three major surfaces. Their most recent meeting took place in the first round of the Madrid Masters. Tsonga won this match, but not before being stretched to a final set by Roger-Vasselin.

Dating back to the Monte Carlo Masters, Roger-Vasselin has lost five of his last seven matches. Tsonga, who has been going through a comparable period of struggle, failed to win more than two consecutive matches in each of Monte Carlo, Madrid, and Rome.

Inspired by the French crowd, Roland Garros has been Tsonga’s most fruitful major over the last two years. In 2012, Tsonga reached the quarterfinals before losing to Novak Djokovic after holding four match points. Last year, Tsonga raced through his quarterfinal encounter with Roger Federer before playing a clunker of a match against David Ferrer in a semifinal. With his star already on the wane, this tournament presents yet another threat to Tsonga’s ranking.

Roger-Vasselin employs a steady, solid all-court game. He doesn’t possess the firepower to blow through Tsonga, but his court awareness, speed, and consistency may cause problems for an opponent who has been known to enter stages of extremely erratic play.

Tsonga has one of the most powerful forehands on tour, which is more than capable of hitting Roger-Vasselin off the court. Immersing Tsonga in backhand-to-backhand rallies will be key for Roger-Vasselin in this match. He hasn’t made it past the second round of the French Open since 2007 and with a very unlucky draw, it appears that he’ll probably suffer the same fate again in 2014.

Prediction: Tsonga in four sets

Milos Raonic

Milos Raonic v. Nick Kyrgios

Milos Raonic is quietly having a strong season. Despite only reaching the third round of the Australian Open, Raonic has reached the quarterfinals at four of the five Masters Series 1000 events. In Rome, the big-serving Canadian bulldozed through to the semifinals before dropping a very tightly contested three-set match against Novak Djokovic. As a result of his tremendous consistency in key events this season, Raonic achieved a career-high ranking of No. 9 on April 21.

Kyrgios, who received a wildcard into the tournament, has been doing his heavy lifting at the Challenger level. The 19-year-old Australian won back-to-back Challenger titles in Sarasota and Savannah. Kyrgios also achieved a career-high ranking of No. 152 on April 28.

It would be a stretch to attach a Brad Gilbert-style upset alert to this match, but Raonic will certainly be wary of the weapons Kyrgios brings to the court. It’s no coincidence that Kyrgios was ranked No. 1 in the world as a junior. The kid can play. Some have compared Kyrgios to Tsonga, although Kyrgios may end up being more dangerous because he has better control of his aggression and can pop his serve with just as much authority. Raonic’s game is obviously centered around his serve, but the Canadian has begun to further develop his skills off the ground and at the net under the watchful eye of Ivan Ljubicic.

 This will be Kyrgios’ second straight appearance in the main draw of the French Open. He took out Radek Stepanek in straight sets last year before losing to Marin Cilic in straight sets. This match may be closer than some are expecting, but look for Raonic to stamp this one out in three tight sets.

Prediction: Raonic in three sets

Jerzy Janowicz

Victor Estrella Burgos v. Jerzy Janowicz

The intrigue of this match is derived mostly from Estrella Burgos’ story and the current (lack of) form Janowicz brings into this match. For those who aren’t aware, Estrella Burgos is a 33-year-old journeyman who will be playing in the main draw of a Grand Slam for the first time in his career. Incredibly enough, Estrella Burgos hasn’t played in the main draw of a tour level event outside of Davis Cup in 2014.

While drawing Jerzy Janowicz in the first round would seem unfortunate, the Polish No.1 hasn’t won a match in over three months and is currently on a nine-match losing streak. Estrella Burgos can also take confidence in the fact that Janowicz is 8-15 in ATP matches on clay in his career.

This is arguably the biggest match of Estrella Burgos’ career. Even though he gained a direct acceptance into the main draw, there will be added pressure knowing that this is an opportunity he may never come across again because he is so late in his career. For Janowicz, this match could either work to partially revive his season, or it could send him spiraling down even further.

The Janowicz scouting report will in all likelihood be advising Jerzy to go after the Estrella Burgos backhand side. The Dominican will do all in his power to play as many forehands as possible. Similar to Tommy Robredo who will literally play forehands from the doubles alley on his backhand side, Estrella Burgos looks to hit his heavy topspin forehand whenever he gets the chance. Against someone like Janowicz who thrives upon flattening out his shots, Estrella Burgos must maintain depth and pace off his forehand side.

Janowicz lost to Argentinian journeyman Maximo Gonzalez in the first round of the US Open last year. It’s unlikely that he’ll see the exit this time, but the will and determination of Estrella Burgos should not be underestimated.

Prediction: Janowicz in four sets