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FollowRoland Garros ATP Day 6 Preview: Berdych, Tsonga, Isner
The third round of ATP action kicks off at the 2014 French Open on Friday, when a top-eight seed will face a recent nemesis, a home hope meets a fiery young shot-maker, and the top American faces a veteran clay specialist from Spain.
Tomas Berdych v. Roberto Bautista-Agut
This match has upset alert written all over it. Roberto Bautista-Agut has been playing the best tennis of his career in 2014, highlighted by two top-five wins over Juan Martin Del Potro and none other than Tomas Berdych.
Bautista-Agut took out Berdych in the second round of Indian Wells, rallying from a set down to do so. This match marked the second time that Bautista-Agut has gotten the better of Berdych in a final set, the first coming in the quarterfinals of Chennai back in 2013. Berdych’s sole victory over the Spaniard came last fall in a straight-sets victory in the second round of Bangkok.
In the last few years, Berdych has had much more success at the other three majors. Bautista-Agut will know this and would be wise to entirely disregard it. Berdych has over 125 clay victories in his career and has racked up two titles on clay. His overwhelming force off the ground and the serve make him an extremely dangerous opponent on any surface. He is one of the few players who can effectively penetrate any court of any speed.
While Bautista-Agut doesn’t quite possess the same power as Berdych, his flat, horizontally-driven groundstrokes can pack a punch—a lesson that Berdych learned the hard way in Indian Wells. The key in this match will be how often Bautista-Agut can keep Berdych on the move and out of stationary positions. Berdych is absolutely deadly when he is given time, particularly from stationary positions where he can set up and clock his groundstrokes. The Spaniard will need to make a conscientious effort of keeping the big man stretched out and on the run.
When two aggressively minded players meet on a slower surface, the winner is often the man who best harnesses his aggression over the course of the match. It’s obvious that both players need to look to obtain the first strike, but overdoing it could lead to a string of unnecessary errors.
Bautista-Agut’s preferred side is his forehand, so it’ll be interesting if Berdych attempts to take his forehand down the line, a tactic he doesn’t usually employ.
If there’s any match that one would expect to go five sets tomorrow, it’s this encounter.
Prediction: Bautista-Agut in five sets
Jerzy Janowicz v. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
Entering the French Open, Jerzy Janowicz must have had an inferno burning in the pit of his stomach. The 23-year-old Polish No. 1 had not won a match in over three months coming into the second major of the season. For a player with such a remarkably unique skills et, losing nine matches in a row must have been unbelievably distressing. Making matters worse, Janowicz lost six of these nine matches in a final set.
Graced with a relatively easy draw, Janowicz disposed of Victor Estrella Burgos in four sets in the first round before taking down Jarkko Nieminen in the second round in straight sets.
Janowicz’s third -ound obstacle will be the charismatic Frenchman Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, a player who is just as hungry as Janowicz. Tsonga has only advanced past the quarterfinals of three events this year and has seen his ranking dip to No. 14 in the world.
Tsonga and Janowicz’s only meeting came in the second round of the Rome Masters last year. Janowicz won this match in straight sets.
Shot selection. Shot selection. Shot selection. Both of these players have so many offensive weapons and can utilize these weapons to approach points in a multitude of ways. When they make smart decisions, they have the ability to race through matches very quickly. But when their brains shut off, and they make haphazard and risky choices, things start to get out of hand.
Tsonga’s main issue is that he often finds himself trying to do too much with his forehand. Janowicz’s love of the drop shot puts him in precarious positions when he uses it too frequently and without a sound thought process.
Look for Janowicz to find the Tsonga backhand as much as possible, and look for Tsonga to respond by attempting to keep Janowicz on the run off the forehand side. When stretched wide to his forehand side, the Pole tends to hit a rally-ending shot—sometimes a winner, but most typically a flat bullet that lands right into the net.
It’s hard to pick against Tsonga in this match, considering Janowicz’s form, but it may be the case that Janowicz’s first two matches have given him the confidence to pull off the upset.
Prediction: Tsonga in four sets
Tommy Robredo v. John Isner
On the surface, it would appear as if John Isner is up against it in his third-round match against Tommy Robredo. This will be Isner’s third time in the third round of Roland Garros. By comparison, Robredo has reached the quarterfinals of the French Open five different times and has made it through to the third round 11 times.
Robredo is the favorite coming in, but this is certainly a winnable match for the American. Prior to the French Open, Robredo had failed to win more than a single match in any tournament after the Monte Carlo Masters. Isner has won five matches during the European clay season, but none of these wins have come against an opponent in the top 50. Isner and Robredo have never played on clay, and Isner won their only meeting in 2010 in Auckland.
From a strategic standpoint, it’ll be intriguing to see how the dynamic between Isner’s heavy kick serve and Robredo’s desire to run around his backhand plays out. The Spaniard possesses an excellent backhand, but he often chooses to run around his backhand to play his forehand. If there was a statistic tracking the amount of times a player runs around their backhand throughout the course of the match, Robredo would be at the very top. Isner may look to throw in a higher quantity of kick serves to take Robredo out of his comfort zone and make him play backhands.
Robredo’s objective in this match will be to target the Isner backhand as much as possible. Unless the Isner backhand is really clicking, it’s a very exploitable shot. Robredo also needs to be sure he doesn’t put forward too many flaccid returns. Isner will start serving and volleying and swat down any weak returns that come his way.
Neither player has looked overly convincing thus far, but Robredo’s clay prowess should give him the slight edge in this one.
Prediction: Robredo in four sets