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FollowPreviewing Wednesday's Matches at the ATP World Tour Finals
All four players from Group A will take the court on Wednesday as Rafael Nadal faces Stanislas Wawrinka, and David Ferrer squares off against Tomas Berdych. Nadal and Wawrinka are looking to obtain the top spot in Group A, while Ferrer and Berdych will be fighting to keep their hopes of a semifinal berth alive.
Stanislas Wawrinka (1-0) vs. Rafael Nadal (1-0)
Both players come into their second round-robin match having won their opening matches. Wawrinka defeated Tomas Berdych in three sets after dropping the second set tiebreaker 7-0. Nadal avenged his semifinal loss to David Ferrer in Paris the previous week, putting his fellow Spaniard away 6-3 6-2.
Nadal’s head-to-head with Wawrinka is as one sided as it can be. The two have played 11 times with Nadal winning every meeting in straight sets. This will be the first indoor hard-court match between Wawrinka and Nadal. When they last played in October at the Shanghai Masters 1000 tournament, Nadal won 7-6(10) 6-1. Note the first-set score: Nadal won the first set in a 12-10 tiebreaker. Despite saving three set points, Wawrinka also held three set points, none of which he was able to convert.
In addition to moving one step closer to the semifinals, Nadal will clinch the year-end No. 1 ranking for the third time (2008, 2010) if he wins on Wednesday.
Wawrinka will need to draw confidence from some of the closer sets that he has played against Nadal. He must come in with the belief that he can hang tight with Nadal throughout the duration of a match. When a head-to-head record is so lopsided, the player on the losing end of the matches may be down a break before the first ball is even struck.
As far as the X’s and O’s are concerned, Wawrinka will need to throw the kitchen sink (and possibly the entire kitchen) at Nadal. To start, look for Stan to attempt to take the initiative in as many points as possible. If he wants any chance of winning, getting the first strike will be key. Nadal has had his fair share of struggles against the game’s power merchants. Wawrinka will be looking to replicate the efforts of a Robin Soderling in the 2009 French Open or Lukas Rosol in Wimbledon 2012.
So what exactly is in Stan’s kitchen sink besides power? For one, the Swiss should take a page out of David Ferrer’s book and target the Nadal backhand to provide himself with shorter balls and time to dictate with his forehand. Many advocate spreading Nadal out to his forehand side, but considering how often Nadal is able to cover this shot and hit it back with interest, Wawrinka should use that tactic cautiously.
Stan would be remiss if he did not throw in some serve-volleys to counteract Nadal’s defensive return stance, slices to test Nadal’s low ball handling ability, and some chip-and-charges off the return to keep Nadal from establishing meaningful rhythm on serve.
For Nadal, the strategy is simple: hit to Wawrinka’s backhand, as with a more famous Swiss player. That stroke can break down under the heavy topspin of Nadal’s cross-court forehands.
Unfortunately for Wawrinka, even if he wins a set, he will have to do it all over again.
Prediction: Nadal in two sets
Tomas Berdych (0-1) vs. David Ferrer (0-1)
This Group A meeting is a rematch of last week’s quarterfinal in Paris. Berdych dropped to 0-1 in Group A after his loss to Wawrinka on Monday. Ferrer fell to the bottom of the group as a result of losing in straight sets to Nadal, whereas Berdych was able to win a set in his first match.
Ferrer leads the overall head-to-head record in this matchup 7-3 and has won four of their last five matches, all of which have come on indoor hard courts. As mentioned, their most recent meeting was last week in Paris, which Ferrer won 4-6 7-5 6-3. In the last four matches played between these two, curiously, the winner of the first set has won only once.
For Tomas Berdych, the stakes could not be higher. If he loses tomorrow, he only has one match left in round-robin play—against Rafael Nadal, a man whom he has not defeated since 2006. For Ferrer, a loss tomorrow may mean that his final round-robin match against Wawrinka decides the second semifinalist from Group A.
Applying the confidence theme to this matchup, Ferrer has owned Berdych on a surface that drastically enhances the Czech’s strengths and dulls Ferrer’s on-court assets. In theory, Berdych’s power would allow him to plow through Ferrer’s cageyness and defense on indoor hard courts, but the Spaniard’s speed and movement still reign supreme.
With all of that said, Ferrer has played an massive amount of tennis in the last several months. Coming into the World Tour Finals, he made three finals in as many weeks, including a valiant title defense in Paris where he was stretched physically and mentally by Berdych, Nadal, and Novak Djokovic.
Losing quickly to Nadal today may have been the best possible thing for Ferrer. As strange as it may sound, not having to fight through a physically and mentally demanding match may provide Ferrer the recovery time necessary to prepare himself for two opponents (Berdych and Wawrinka) whom he would expect to beat.
Berdych’s game is hindered due to the relatively slow surface. Still, he can try to embrace the slower speed of the court and look to pull the Spaniard left and right and up and down with consistent depth, variety of spins, and possibly a few drop shots and lobs.
If Ferrer cannot bring full physical fitness , he will not be able to rely on his counterpunching, absorption-oriented style of play and he will need to go on the offensive.
This match is the hardest to predict of the tournament thus far, but Ferrer probably will find a way to survive again.
Prediction: Ferrer in three sets