The joint tournament in Rome concludes with finals featuring three of the top players in the world and the highest-ranked woman from the host nation. Nick Nemeroff offers his usual intrepid preview.

Serena Williams v. Sara Errani

The forecast is extremely bleak for the Italian. In the previous six matches that Errani has contested against Serena Williams, she has won only one set.

The most recent meeting between these two took place in the semifinals of the French Open last year. Serena was merciless on that day, conceding just one game in a match that lasted a grand total of 46 minutes.

Errani took out Jelena Jankovic in the semifinals in straight sets, while Serena Williams was stretched to a final set by Jankovic’s countrywoman, Ana Ivanovic, before wrapping the match up 6-1 in the decider.

Errani has constructed a fabulous week in her home country, but it’s going to take a phenomenal performance from her to take down Serena Williams. The red dirt is a surface that is extremely compatible to Errani’s game, maximizing her strengths and minimizing her weaknesses.

Unfortunately for her, the style of play that Serena Williams brings the table is anything but compatible to Errani’s game. The thunderous groundstrokes that Serena possesses are not easily quelled, and Errani’s counterpunching tendencies have proven futile against the American. A resolute effort to put every ball back into play is a strategy bound to overwhelm a vast number of opponents when effectively executed, particularly on clay. Against Serena Williams, this is a strategy destined to fail, due to Serena’s propensity to finish points early and with conviction. It doesn’t matter how many balls Errani can put into play when Serena is simply going to take anything neutral or defensive and crush it.

Usually, this is a situation where a coach would advise Errani to be more aggressive and take it to Serena. But I don’t think such a game plan conforms to the realities of Errani’s game. The Italian plays with a western forehand grip, which means that her contact point is generally going to be high, and her swing path is going to predominantly be low to high. Her capacity to drive and flatten out her forehand is hindered by her grip and natural swing path. In addition, Errani’s serve sits up and has minimal pace. It’s a shot that Serena will be waiting to pummel.

Serena enters this favorite as a massive favorite and should be leaving Rome with yet another significant title to her name.

Prediction: Serena in two sets

Novak Djokovic v. Rafael Nadal

The questions and doubts surrounding Nadal may finally end tomorrow. If the Spaniard is able to complete the Madrid-Rome double, beating Novak Djokovic in the process, his stock for the French Open will surely rise. Djokovic has been the one player who has consistently been able to solve Nadal. In the last three matches Nadal and Djokovic have played, Djokovic has won every set and has not lost more than four games in any set.

Overall, Nadal leads the head-to-head 22-18 and has won four of the last five matches these two have played on clay. Their most recent meeting took place in the final of the Miami Masters 1000 tournament, and their most recent meeting on clay took place in the semifinals of the French Open last year.

The Serbian needed exactly three hours to get past the high-octane Canadian Milos Raonic, while Nadal needed just 82 minutes to take care of an underwhelming Grigor Dimitrov.

The magnitude of this match cannot be overstated. While this is a victory that would obviously mean a lot to both men, the outcome may be more important to Djokovic. Despite the fact that Nadal has not been in tip-top form over the last month or so, he’s already won the French Open eight times, whereas Djokovic never has won it. Nadal knows that, even if he loses tomorrow, he holds a 59-1 record at the French Open. Also, beating him in a best-of-five match on clay is exponentially more difficult than beating him in a best-of-three set match.

For Djokovic, losing to Nadal might be demoralizing considering how vulnerable Nadal has appeared during the European clay season. It might be a stretch to say that Djokovic should make quick work of Nadal as he has in their past three matches, but this is a match Djokovic should win. It might not be easy, and it might not be quick, but this is a match that Djokovic will view as a great opportunity to build even more confidence moving into Paris. In my estimation, Djokovic is a sizeable favorite in this match, even though Nadal has been made the favorite. That may have to do with his historical clay court dominance more than any other factor.

There are two main patterns of play that opponents have used to hamper the Spaniard during the European clay season. One of these patterns involves taking Nadal’s cross-court forehand, stretching him out wide, and forcing him to make a strenuous effort to get under the ball. This pattern of play is typically executed when Nadal’s opponents take their backhands very early, or run around their backhands and play an inside-out forehand. Once Nadal’s opponents are able to extract a short cross-court forehand from him, they are open to driving that shot down the line and ending the point.

The other pattern of play that Djokovic will be looking to use consists of ripping topspin to Nadal’s backhand corner, stretching Nadal near the alleys, and forcing him to raise the height of his contact point or defend with a slice backhand. Nadal usually has a tough time generating pace on these balls. He tends to drift them short and in the middle of the court, which will give Djokovic the opportunity to punish Nadal with what is usually an inside-out forehand.

Nadal’s use of the forehand down the line will be crucial in preventing Djokovic from executing and maintaining these patterns of play throughout the course of the match.

Before the season started, it seemed that Novak Djokovic had a legitimate chance to win all four majors. He obviously didn’t win the first. Will he win the second? It looks like he has a great chance, and tomorrow should provide him with yet another stepping stone towards winning the French Open.

Prediction: Djokovic in two sets