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Previewing Djokovic-Gasquet, Murray-Federer at Wimbledon

Jul 10th 2015

Having contested an epic battle in the Wimbledon final last year, Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer stand on the brink of a rematch. The challenge ahead looms larger for the Swiss than for the Serb.

Novak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic vs. Richard Gasquet

When the five-set thriller between Stanislas Wawrinka and Richard Gasquet finally came to a dramatic conclusion, there were at least two players very happy with the outcome.  The obvious one is Gasquet, who advanced to his third major semifinal with that victory.  The other is Novak Djokovic, who has to be pleased with the prospect of playing the Frenchman in the semifinals instead of his Roland Garros conqueror, Wawrinka.

It is not that Djokovic will be taking Gasquet lightly.  On the contrary, he knows that the Frenchman is a talented player who has collected some notable wins over the course of his career.  The Serb also acknowledged the improved fitness of the 21st seed and recognized that this has made him a more formidable opponent than in years past.  But even while having a healthy amount of respect for the Frenchman, Djokovic knows, as evidenced by his dominant 11-1 record against Gasquet, that he has a very good look at making another Wimbledon final.

One of the main reasons that Djokovic has enjoyed so much success in this rivalry is that, at least from his perspective, his game matches up so well against Gasquet's.  There are no blaring weaknesses in the Serb's game.  He can go bigger off the ground, and unlike the Frenchman, he rarely has a tendency to get trapped too far behind the baseline.  He gets more mileage out of his serve, is far more effective on the return, and in the end, his consistency is typically enough to outlast any flashes of brilliance from Gasquet.

Gasquet is definitely going to have come up with one brilliant performance if he hopes to cause another upset and advance to his first Grand Slam final, but he will not be weaponless in his attempt to do so.  His defensive skills are underrated, he is capable of producing stunning winners from anywhere on the court, and he has one of the prettiest, most versatile one-handed backhands in the game.  The fact that this latest meeting will take place on grass should also help his cause.  The lawns more richly reward the spins he puts on the ball, and as a player who can be guilty of drifting too far back, the grass also keeps him in a more offensive mindset, regularly looking to move forward.  It is imperative that Gasquet continue to aim to get to the net as much as possible to put Djokovic under pressure if he wants to have a chance in this match.

Richard Gasquet

Gasquet can also help his chances by keeping the match close and applying scoreboard pressure to Djokovic.  He has to make both the Serb and himself believe that he is capable of securing the win.  That will be easier said than done, however.  Gasquet's last victory over the top seed came eight years ago, and the majority of his 11 losses to Djokovic have been routine, including the thumping he took from the current No. 1 last month at Roland Garros.  Furthermore, he has scant experience playing matches of this magnitude, which could haunt him in the big moments.  That said, he has to remember that Djokovic is human.  The weight of expectation is all on the defending champion's shoulders, and particularly after the way he exited Paris, he could be feeling that pressure.

Whether he is under greater pressure or not, though, there is no question that Djokovic is the heavy favorite to advance to the final.  He is clearly the better player, hands down.  Gasquet is going to have to have all of his weapons firing and produce one exceptional performance if he hopes to send the top seed packing.

Roger Federer vs. Andy Murray

From the moment the draw came out, one of the most anticipated and hoped-for clashes was the one that would pit Roger Federer against Andy Murray.  Both men have managed to navigate their way to the final four to deliver on these hopes and set up what should be a blockbuster semifinal.

The appeal of this match-up stems from the fact that these are two players that presently are as seemingly even as they can get.  Federer and Murray are currently ranked and seeded second and third.  Both men won a tune-up event heading into Wimbledon.  And, having met an odd number of times, their head-to-head is as close as it can get, with Federer holding the slight edge 12-11.  It now remains to be seen if he will extend that lead or if Murray will tie it up with a victory on Friday.

Andy Murray

Murray has the game to garner the win.  He is remarkably consistent from the back of the court, plays phenomenal defense, and has one of the best returns in the sport.  In addition to that, he has continued to grow increasingly competent at net since adding Jonas Bjorkman to his team, and he also appears to have more direction with his game.  He is committed to being more aggressive, and it has been paying dividends throughout the majority of 2015.

The issue for Murray is that Federer can also boast a lot of these same skills.  His defense is often under-appreciated, and he has become even more aggressive the last couple of seasons.  He moves beautifully on the grass, and Wimbledon has always been a tournament that rewards what he can produce with his one-handed backhand.  If anything, he seems even more sure of himself on that wing when the grass is under his feet.  Furthermore, Federer is the one willing to take a few more chances and generally will go a little bigger than the Scot, especially off his forehand side.  If the Swiss brings his A-game, he will be the one dictating more of the rallies and have the better chance of advancing.

Federer also arguably has a slight advantage mentally in this contest.  It is true that both men are under great pressure to win this semifinal.  Even though he ended the long wait for a British champion, Murray knows how much the crowd wants to see a home favorite hoist the trophy.  Federer is a beloved legend and sentimental favorite, however, and there are plenty in the crowd who would love to see him add to his major title tally by earning an Open Era-record eighth Wimbledon title.  But where Federer has an edge on Murray is that he has still been here far more than the third seed.  He has also defeated Murray in four of their five clashes that have come at the majors, including their meeting in the final here three years ago.  The Swiss won their most recent encounter in emphatic fashion as well, dropping just a single game when they battled at the ATP World Tour Finals at the end of last season.  No one is expecting such a lopsided result on Friday, but it does demonstrate why Federer, when at his best, has to be considered the favorite when playing Murray.

Roger Federer

Of course, there is no telling what exactly will happen when these men take to the court in Friday's semifinal.  Federer has looked the slightly sharper of the pair, but Murray is a different opponent than what the Swiss has faced to get to this point.  He is plenty capable of putting Federer under pressure and gaining the upper hand, provided he can stay out of his own way.  The odds must favor Federer, but only just.  In the end, this one is too close to call.