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Previewing Djokovic-Cilic, Federer-Simon at Wimbledon

Jul 8th 2015

The top two players in the world are two wins apiece from a rematch of last year’s Wimbledon final. Each has historically held the edge against their quarterfinal opponents, but their form of those challengers has been impressive this fortnight at Wimbledon.

Novak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic vs. Marin Cilic

I”m lucky to be here.”  That could easily be the thought running through the minds of both Novak Djokovic and Marin Cilic.  Both men have come perilously close to exiting the tournament, yet they have managed to play clutch tennis when it mattered most to persevere and book a spot in the last eight of Wimbledon.  Unfortunately for one of them, their luck will have run out come Wednesday.

Conventional wisdom would have it that Cilic is the player more apt to see his Wimbledon campaign brought to an end in the quarterfinals.  He is much less accomplished than Djokovic, and he has a horrendous record against the Serb.  The two have met on 12 occasions with Cilic coming out on the losing end of every one of them, so, at least on the surface, there is not a whole lot for the Croat to feel confident about heading into Wednesday's match.

One must scratch below the surface in order to gain a more accurate depiction of the situation, however.  In this instance, that means realizing that in spite of the differences in their number of accomplishments and shared history, Cilic is a dangerous player capable of making this a difficult match for Djokovic.  It is true that Djokovic has easily dismantled the current No. 9 more than a few times, but their three prior meetings at a major have all been relatively tight affairs.  Two of those three matches were close four-set encounters, while their most recent meeting at a Grand Slam, which came in the quarterfinals of Wimbledon last year, went the full five sets.  Cilic actually led Djokovic two sets to one on that occasion before the Serb roared back to advance.

Djokovic will likely remember that encounter from last season and respect Cilic as a formidable foe.  The Croat has a huge serve, moves exceptionally well for his size, and is able to produce powerful groundstrokes from both sides.  In addition to that, he has always cut an imposing figure at the net and has continued to improve his skills up there to devastating effect.  It is essential for Cilic that he continually employ those improved skills and have a good serving day in order to constantly keep Djokovic under pressure and to cull errors from the top seed's racquet.

Marin Cilic

The good news for the Serb that with his comeback victory over Kevin Anderson in the last round, Djokovic has already received a good taste of what he can expect to see from Cilic.  As such, he knows that he has to be sharp on the return and especially look to be effective when he gets a look at a second serve.  In addition to that, he has to be accurate and selective with his choice of passing shots, as well as be prepared to go on the defensive to extend rallies until he has an opportunity to seize control.  Most important, though, he has to be more vigilant about protecting his own serve.

Protecting his serve against Cilic is just one of the pressures Djokovic will face in this match.  He also has to live up to expectations as the one favored to win it.  Additionally, he is attempting to defend his Wimbledon title and is arguably trying to show that there is no hangover effect from his painful loss at Roland Garros.  But while the majority of the pressure is on Djokoic, Cilic will not be exempt.  He knows he has to come up with something special to finally get a win on the board against the Serb, and after having had much of his 2015 season marred by injury, he will no doubt hope to start his summer hard court season off on a high note by putting together a successful stint at the All England Lawn Tennis Club.

Roger Federer

Roger Federer vs. Gilles Simon

It was not the quarterfinal that many predicted.  Most had figured that Tomas Berdych, a former Wimbledon finalist who had defeated Roger Federer on these very lawns, would be the opponent of the Swiss in the last eight, but Gilles Simon spoiled the party.  The Frenchman brought Berdych's Wimbledon dreams to an emphatic end, and now he will aim to do the same against Federer.

There is no denying that Simon has been assigned a difficult task in trying to dismiss Federer from Wimbledon, but that does not mean that it will be a walk in the park for the Swiss.  The Frenchman has garnered two wins against Federer, and ironically enough, they came in their first pair of meetings seven years ago when the former No. 1 was still well in his prime.  Since then, it has been Federer who has enjoyed the better end of the bargain in this rivalry, but outside of two of their meetings – one of which was a retirement by Simon – they have all been close.  In fact, on the two occasions where they have met at a major, the matches have gone five sets.  If this trend continues, Wednesday's match could be more competitive than many suspect.

One of the elements that can turn this into such a spectacular match is that these two players exercise contrasting styles of play.  Federer is clearly the more aggressive of the duo.  He is regularly looking to inflict damage with his forehand and is very versatile with his backhand.  He gets more mileage out of his serve, and in the last couple of seasons, has done a great job of consistently looking to move forward and get to net when he can to rob his opponents of valuable time.  In addition to that, he has more variety in his game than the Frenchman and is simply the overall better player.  If his game is firing on all cylinders, he should come through this latest installment in their rivalry with flying colors.

Federer will have to be at his best, though, because if not, Simon possess the type of game that can frustrate him.  The Frenchman is more than comfortable playing the role of retriever.  He is one of the speediest players on tour and does a phenomenal job of making the opposition hit multiple extra shots just to win a point.  He typically does not panic when an opponent rushes the net either, and more often than not, he plays the percentages to where his consistency makes him almost like playing a backboard.  When he couples that with his ability to take the initiative by charging the net or pulling the trigger when the opportunity is there for the taking, he can be difficult to defeat.

Gilles Simon

The big intangible in this match, however, is whether or not the magnitude of the situation will inhibit Simon's ability to play his brand of tennis at its highest level.  Technically the same question could be posed of Federer, but it is a greater unknown with the 12th seed.  Simon knows that this match is more in Federer's hands than it is in his, and the Frenchman has only ever been to this stage of a major once in his career.  By contrast, Federer has won more major singles titles than other man in the Open Era and has far more experience handling the pressure moments at these elite events.  That difference in experience could be the major deciding factor in this match.

It remains to be seen how each of these men reacts to the moment.  If they both rise to the occasion, this could be a tight contest, and like most things at this year's Wimbledon, there will be no guarantee that things will go according to script.  Expect Federer to be the one apt to get through, but if Simon comes with his game face on, look for him to make the Swiss work for it.