The men’s field heading into Roland Garros has a familiar look. Or does it? Nick Nemeroff breaks down the implications of recent events in his analysis of the leading Paris contenders.

Rafael Nadal:

59-1. In the 60 matches Rafael Nadal has played at the French Open, he has only lost one. Beating Nadal in a best-of-five match there may not only be the toughest task in tennis, but it may be the toughest task in all of sports.

As Robin Soderling proved in 2009, however, it is not an impossible feat. There are players out there who can do it, and there will undoubtedly be more players who believe they can do it this year than in years past. Nadal played four tournaments during the European clay court swing and was only able to win a title in Madrid.

In all likelihood, Nadal will be pushed to unfamiliar lengths in the earlier stages of the French Open but will find the goods as he has done so many times before. As the tournament progresses and Nadal begins to face the likes of Stanislas Wawrinka, David Ferrer, and Novak Djokovic, the pictures becomes less lucid and the expectation of victory will diminish.

Losing in the final of Rome surely won’t help Nadal’s cause moving into the French Open, but in reality, it probably won’t hurt him much either. He knows the French Open is an entirely different animal and that his opponents must prepare for a test unlike any other.

At the end of the day, it’s hard to say whether or not Nadal will win the French Open for the ninth time. Much of it depends on the level of play Nadal and his opponents bring to the table on any given day, but at the moment picking the field over Nadal doesn’t seem like the craziest of propositions.

Novak Djokovic:

The last three French Opens have not been particularly kind to Djokovic, although he has crept closer to completing the career Grand Slam each time. In 2011, the Serb was taken out by Roger Federer in the semifinals, ending his 41-match winning streak. In 2012, Djokovic threatened to push Rafael Nadal to five sets in the French Open final before rain stopped play with Djokovic up a break in the fourth set. When play resumed the next day, Nadal stormed back to win the set 7-5. In 2013, Djokovic did take Nadal to a fifth set and led by a break late in that set. Serving at deuce, he put away an overhead that would have given him game point, but instead Nadal was awarded the point as Djokovic hit the net with his racket before the ball bounced twice. Nadal would go on to win the game and the match.

Given the level of heartbreak that Djokovic has experienced over the last several years, it’s no surprise that Djokovic wants this major more than any other. Until he wins the French Open, there will be no major that means as much to the Serb. His situation is quite similar to what Roger Federer went through earlier in his career before he won the French Open in 2009.

Who will topple Rafael Nadal is the question that is asked every year before the French Open commences, and it appears that this year Novak Djokovic is as good an answer as it has ever been. If Djokovic does meet Nadal in the final, he’ll need to bring his A-game. In the first set of the Rome final, Djokovic arrived to the party a bit late and Nadal pounced. If such periods of uneven play characterize Djokovic’s game in a final against Nadal, his hunt for a Roland Garros title will continue. But if he is able to replicate the performance he put together in the second and third sets of the Rome final, Djokovic may very well be on his way to capturing his first Roland Garros title.

Roger Federer and Stanislas Wawrinka:

For the very first time, Stanislas Wawrinka is being given better odds of winning the French Open than Roger Federer. When Wawrinka is firing on all cylinders, no opponent is safe. But, as has been proven over the last several weeks, he is susceptible to significant dips in his level of play. Meanwhile it’s hard to envision a scenario where Federer plays Nadal during the Roland Garros fortnight and ends up winning the tournament. Having just introduced his twin boys into the world, it’ll be interesting to see what Federer can do at what has been his weakest major.

Wawrinka and Federer seem to be the most likely candidates to thwart a Nadal-Djokovic final. If the semifinal matchups end up being Nadal-Wawrinka and Federer-Djokovic, don’t be surprised if we end up seeing an all-Swiss final.

David Ferrer:

The 2013 French Open finalist must not be forgotten. Ferrer is another player, like Wawrinka, who has the capacity to take down any player in the world when he is on—even Nadal and Djokovic. The challenge is far more difficult at a major, but putting anything past the always resolute Spaniard would be unwise. In Monte Carlo, Ferrer took down Nadal in straight sets. In Rome, Ferrer was three games away from taking down Djokovic. Will the Spaniard win the French Open? Probably not. Will he be feared by the big guns? Most certainly.