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Perspective on David Ferrer's Apparent Resurgence

Feb 25th 2015

David Ferrer has been a fascinating tennis player to keep an eye for the past several years. He was an inconsistent top player for much of his career but found a second gear about five years ago. His fight and talent have always kept him in matches and ahead of most players that he should beat. 

Now, though, Ferrer is an exciting player to watch but boring in terms of results. He wins the matches he is supposed to win but rarely wins the ones he isn't. In short, he is a gambler's best friend. You can trust him not to be upset by a lower player. But you can also trust him not to beat the Roger Federers, Rafael Nadals, and Novak Djokovics of the tour. 

David Ferrer
 

2013 was certainly Ferrer's peak so far. He reached the final of Roland Garros and achieved a career-high ranking of No. 3 at the age of 31. Since then, though, his results have struggled, especially off clay. He has been in danger of dropping out of the top 10 for the past few months and had some very perplexing losses last year. After 10 straight Grand Slam quarterfinals or better (and 16 straight second weeks), Ferrer lost early at both Wimbledon and the US Open in 2014

So where does Ferrer stand now? Last year he lost a staggering 13 matches to players ranked outside the top 10. This year, two short months into the season, he has lost none. Ferrer has also won two titles, already exceeding his 2014 total and equaling his 2013 tally. 

Titles don't tell a whole story, though. We still can't be sure where Ferrer is right now. Granted, the victory over Fabio Fognini (who was fresh off an upset of Rafael Nadal) in Rio is impressive. But he did not need to beat a single other top-50 player to win that tournament. Similarly, his first title in Doha this year only came with two top-50 victories. But there is certainly no shame in a fourth-round loss to Kei Nishikori at the Australian Open. 

Ferrer is clearly a step ahead of where he was last year so far this year. He is playing well and his defensive counterpunching style is still one of the best in the game, especially on clay. But the field is catching up to him and the incredible consistency that he showed for five years is wavering a little. 

Maybe Ferrer will come back this year, better than ever. He is certainly still tough for anyone to beat. But his style is not easy on the body and he is no longer so young, with his 33rd birthday rapidly approaching in under two months. He probably has some magic left for us at the clay Masters and Roland Garros. He is certainly not going to fade quickly. But, even with two early titles this year, we have to be a bit wary of his future. He hasn't proven yet this year that he is still the safe bet he used to be.