Rafael Nadal has recaptured the No. 1 ranking, but will he stay there?

The short answer is, resoundingly, “Yes.”

Nadal moved back to world No. 1 on Monday for the first time since Wimbledon 2011, despite losing to former No. 1 Novak Djokovic in the Beijing final. Nadal’s excellence this season has been nearly unimaginable, so his return to the top spot was much more a question of when than if.

After Djokovic, who trails Nadal by 40 points, no other man is even close. Andy Murray sits at No. 3, over 4000 points behind them. And Murray is injured, unable to defend fall points from the Shanghai final and the semifinals of the year-end championships. Meanwhile, No. 4 David Ferrer also can expect to gain little ground this fall unless he defends his Masters 1000 title in Paris, which seems unlikely considering his inconsistent second-half form.

Thus, the contest remains between only two men, Nadal and Djokovic, for world No. 1 for the foreseeable future. And that battle is not as close as it looks when one considers the larger picture.

Nadal missed this part of last season with a knee injury, so he has nothing to lose and everything to gain until the end of the year. On the other hand, Djokovic domianted the fall season last year. The Serb won Shanghai and did not lose a single match at the World Tour Finals, meaning he has 2500 points to defend between now and December.  If Djokovic does not win those, he will fall further behind Nadal even if the latter produces only mediocre results.

Nadal cannot quite lock up the world No.1 mathematically yet, but there is little doubt that he will end the year there. The only place where Djokovic can gain points is the Masters 1000 tournament in Paris, where he lost early last year to Sam Querrey.  (This assumes that he does not ask for a wildcard to Basel or Valencia, which is very unlikely.)

At the beginning of next year, moreover, Djokovic has 2000 points to defend with his Australian Open title and Nadal none, having not played the event in 2013. Aside from his shocking loss at Wimbledon, Nadal is in the midst of one of his best stretches ever. The only reason that Djokovic has stayed within striking distance of him is that Djokovic dominated the parts of the season that Nadal did not play last year. If Nadal stays healthy and plays well during those stretches, his lead at the No. 1 spot could stretch to 3000 points or more by February.

The Spaniard has 1000 points to defend in April of next year and 4600 points in May. If Djokovic has stayed close to him by then, the No. 1 ranking might be contested by Roland Garros. But, until then, fans should get used to seeing Nadal at the top of the rankings. He will stay there for months to come.