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Nadal, Wawrinka, Federer, Djokovic Seek Monte Carlo Semifinals

Apr 17th 2014

The quarterfinal lineup at the Masters 1000 tournament in Monte Carlo features six top-10 men, including all of the top four.  Nick Nemeroff previews each of these marquee matches.

Stanislas Wawrinka

Stanislas Wawrinka vs. Milos Raonic

Australian Open champion Stanislas Wawrinka and top Canadian man Milos Raonic have met on two previous occasions, both on hard courts and both won by Wawrinka.

Raonic dropped the first set of his second-round match to Yen-Hsun Lu before bulldozing his way through the final two sets. In what was a surprisingly straightforward affair a round later, Raonic took down veteran Spaniard Tommy Robredo 6-4 6-3. Wawrinka dismantled an in-form Marin Cilic in 45 minutes and then took his spot in the quarterfinals after Nicolas Almagro withdrew from the tournament.

In what may be a surprise to many, Wawrinka has a higher winning percentage on clay than he does on any other surface. In addition, Wawrinka has stated in the past that he feels clay is his best surface, although his success in Australia may leave him thinking differently now. Raonic, in contrast, has earned the vast majority of his ATP wins on hard courts and has limited clay-court experience.

If Wawrinka is able to keep the Canadian pinned deep behind the baseline, he’ll prevent Raonic from executing his typical game plan. Protracted, all-court rallies are the exact opposite of the type of rallies that Raonic wants to play. Raonic will be looking to get on top of the baseline, flatten his shots out, and move forward when possible. If Raonic finds himself way behind the baseline, he’ll leave himself vulnerable to hitting too many short balls that kick up into Wawrinka’s strike zone.

The Swiss star’s biggest goal in this match will be to neutralize Raonic’s serve. Wawrinka tends to block a lot of returns back into play, but he should take a more aggressive approach than he would on a hard court or grass. Clay will give him more time to react on the return.

Prediction: Wawrinka in three sets

Rafael Nadal

Rafael Nadal vs. David Ferrer

The two highest-ranked Spaniards will meet once again in a significant clay-court match. Nadal leads the head-to-head in this matchup 21-5, including a 17-1 advantage on clay. When these two last met, Nadal took his countryman down in London at the World Tour Finals. This came several days after Ferrer shocked Nadal at the Paris Masters 1000 tournament.

Both Nadal and Ferrer have given up just nine games in their first two matches this week. Ferrer handled his first big test of the tournament by defeating Grigor Dimitrov in the round of 16, whereas Nadal hasn’t faced any semblance of a threat thus far.

It’s no coincidence that Nadal hasn’t lost to Ferrer on clay since 2004. Ferrer and Nadal both bring to the table similar clay-court games. Both are relentless on the offensive and unbreakable on the defensive. Unfortunately for Ferrer, there’s not much he does better than Nadal. He’ll have to hope for an intersection of his top tennis and subpar tennis from Nadal.

Prediction: Nadal in three sets

Roger Federer

Roger Federer vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

While this would be a more entertaining match on a grass court, Tsonga and Federer typically produce enjoyable matches regardless of the surface. The last time that they played came in the round of 16 at the Australian Open, however, a match that Federer thoroughly dominated in three routine sets. Overall, Federer leads the head-to-head 10-4, but Tsonga won their most recent meeting on clay in the French Open quarterfinals last year.

In his first two matches, Federer breezed through Czech foes Radek Stepanek and Lukas Rosol. Tsonga’s route to the quarterfinals was much tougher. The Frenchman escaped three-set battles with Philipp Kohlschreiber and Fabio Fognini. Tsonga’s win over Fognini was particularly impressive considering Fognini’s recent Davis Cup win over Andy Murray on clay.

Tsonga and Federer possess two of the most lethal forehands in tennis, so look for a lot of forehands to be hit in this match. Tsonga gets in trouble on clay because his offensive firepower is much easier to defend there, and he becomes impatient and erratic. Federer is a superb slider and should be able to adequately defend and neutralize his opponent’s pace. The Swiss star’s second-serve return should play a significant role in this match. Any second-serve return that Federer chips and leaves short, Tsonga must use to take control of the point.

Prediction: Federer in two sets

Novak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic vs. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez comes red-hot into this quarterfinal. The Spaniard has won eight consecutive matches, which includes three matches this week and five matches last week en route to the title in Casablanca. This is Djokovic’s first clay-court tournament of the season, but he has showed that he is in peak form after dropping only two games in his first two matches. Garcia-Lopez scored a phenomenal comeback in a three-set victory over Tomas Berdych in the round of 16 to secure his spot in the last eight.

Djokovic leads the head-to-head between the two 5-0. The two have played on clay on two separate occasions, more recently a match at Madrid in 2011 that Djokovic won 6-1 6-2.

Although this is a quarterfinal, Djokovic is a massive favorite and should have no problems. Garcia-Lopez doesn’t overwhelm his opponents with any shot and doesn’t move well enough to beat opponents with sheer consistency. He’s an intelligent player who can work the court and take his opportunities when given. But he does not have the firepower to take out Novak Djokovic, especially on clay.

Prediction: Djokovic in two sets