One of the most anticipated battles of the ATP season will unfold in the last clay match of 2014. The Roland Garros final pits Rafael Nadal against Novak Djokovic in the 42nd meeting and seventh major final between the two champions. Nick Nemeroff breaks down this decade’s greatest rivalry from every angle.

Storylines

For Rafael Nadal, actions speak louder than words—specifically the words of others. With each loss Nadal suffered during the clay court season (three in total), the level of questioning increased. What’s wrong with Nadal? Has he lost his groove on clay? And of course, the most important question, the question that will be answered tomorrow, is “Will he win the French Open?”

Nadal has a chance to silence the doubters and send the critics on their way tomorrow as he looks to capture his ninth French Open title. Throughout the entirety of the clay court season, Nadal kept his head down and kept battling as we all expected. No matter the amount of confidence he brought into each match, he fought to the bitter end. And tomorrow, against Novak Djokovic, a man who has beaten him four times in a row, Nadal will fight to the end.

As for Novak Djokovic, his entire season will be evaluated in large part on the outcome of this match. No ifs, ands, or buts about it. If Djokovic were to take down Nadal, anything he does for the rest of the season will pale in comparison. To this point, the Serbian has won every major and Masters Series 1000 title except Roland Garros and Cincinnati.

This match represents everything Djokovic wants and everything he has worked for. It’s no secret that he has been desperately attempting to reach the finish line at Roland Garros for the last four years. Losing at the French Open to Nadal for a sixth time and not winning this tournament would be a disheartening setback for Djokovic. Since winning the Australian Open last year, he has won six Masters Series 1000 events but has lost in two major finals. He’s been the best player in the world outside the majors but not when it matters most.

Head-to-Head

Nadal leads the overall head-to-head in this matchup 22-19. In Grand Slam finals, they are tied at three apiece, although Nadal won their only meeting in the French Open final back in 2012. As mentioned, he has taken down Djokovic all five times they’ve played at the French Open.

Djokovic has a 4-13 record against Nadal on clay, which is sensational relative to the rest of the human population. In their most recent meeting in Rome, Djokovic rallied from a set down to win his fourth consecutive match against Nadal. In these four matches, Nadal has won only one set. In their last eight matches, Nadal has only won consecutive sets a single time.

Tactics

The forecast for tomorrow in Paris seems to favor Djokovic. There is supposed to be rain in the morning, and the temperature isn’t expected to rise above 80 degrees. In addition, the forecast calls for cloud cover.

Nadal thrives in sunny, dry conditions where the ball bounces higher and moves through the court faster. Djokovic is going to have an easier time putting himself in offensive positions in these conditions and will be less at the mercy of Nadal’s brutal patterns and topspin forehand.

It’ll be crucial to see how Nadal and Djokovic return serve and how the server responds. Nadal’s return of serve is one of the weaker components of his game. If he chooses to camp out behind the baseline to return serve, he’ll be playing into Djokovic’s hands and basically asking him to take the initiative, an offer he won’t refuse. Djokovic’s return of serve is arguably the best of all time, but he accomplishes his desired goals off the return of serve when he establishes an aggressive intent. Nadal hasn’t been breaking any radar guns with his serve this tournament, and if Djokovic chooses to repetitively hit middle-of-the-road returns, he’ll be conceding major opportunities to get ahead in points.

Without a question, the tipping point shot in this match will be Nadal’s forehand. In the first set in his match against David Ferrer, Nadal was unable to use his forehand as much as he wanted. When he did find his forehand, he generally did so from defensive positions on the court. Djokovic will be committed to making sure Nadal is hitting offensive forehands as infrequently as possible. Whether this means finding his backhand or stretching him out low and wide to his forehand side, Djokovic must avoid letting Nadal use his forehand as he so desires.

Final Thoughts

Famous United States soccer player Mia Hamn once said, “I am building a fire, and every day I train, I add more fuel. At just the right moment, I light the match.” 

On Sunday afternoon in Paris, all the pressure will be on Novak Djokovic. Nadal has lit his match in Paris eight times. For Djokovic, lighting his match will be as tough as trying to start an actual fire by rubbing two pennies together.

When the draw came out, my pick was Novak Djokovic. And while Nadal has demonstrated that his form is peaking, the domination Djokovic has demonstrated in their last four matches cannot be ignored. Combining this with ideal conditions for Djokovic, I’m picking him to capture the most critical and cathartic victory of his career.

Prediction: Djokovic in five sets