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Nadal, Kerber Seek Third-Round Berths at Wimbledon

Jul 1st 2015

Flying under the radar at this tournament, the two No. 10 seeds Angelique Kerber and Rafael Nadal eye promising routes to the third round of Wimbledon. But their opponents have plenty of shot-making talent and a flair for the big stage.

Angelique Kerber vs. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova

The opening rounds of Wimbledon have surprisingly already presented a number of the top seeds with early tests.  Some have passed, while others have failed.  On Thursday, it will be Angelique Kerber's turn to face a potentially tricky test in her opponent, Anastasia Pavyluchenkova.

Pavyluchenkova has it in her to fulfill the role of dangerous floater.  Four years ago, the Russian was ranked just outside the top 10, and although she has seen her results slip since then, she still remains ranked a very respectable No. 42.  She has earned seven titles in her young career and pushed many of the top players.  Most important for Pavyluchenkova is the fact that she has garnered impressive wins over opponents more accomplished than Kerber, so despite being the underdog, she will enter this battle secure in the knowledge that a victory is still within her grasp.

Angelique Kerber

The problem for Pavyluchenkova is that the chance of a victory will be barely within her grasp if Kerber continues to maintain her current form.  The German, ranked No. 10, has had a very solid 2015.  She won a title in Charleston, secured victories over Maria Sharapova and Caroline Wozniacki en route to winning the title in Stuttgart, and she won the Wimbledon tune-up event in Birmingham.  If there were any doubts as to whether the 10th seed had cooled off upon arriving at the All England Lawn Tennis Club, they were emphatically dismissed in her opening round when she did not surrender a single game.  Kerber could not possibly enter this upcoming match on a higher note of confidence.

While there is nothing wrong with feeling optimistic, Kerber knows that she must be wary of becoming overconfident against Pavyluchenkova.  The two have had some tight tussles in the past, and they have split their prior six meetings at three apiece.  Furthermore, the Russian is a very solid player who can go flat and relatively big off both sides.  Her favorite shot is the forehand down the line, and if she is feeling good with that stroke, she could make life difficult for Kerber by using it to open up the court and get the tenth seed out of position.

Of course, Kerber will not necessarily mind being put on the defensive.  If anything, Kerber has been accused of playing the counter-puncher too often over the course of her career, given that she is capable of pulling the trigger from both wings.  The positive note for Kerber, however, is that she does appear to be playing more aggressively of late, and if she is able to keep consistently ripping her own forehand down the line and finding the acute angles with her backhand, she will be the one in the better position to control what is happening on the court.  As an added bonus, Kerber has enjoyed more success at this venue with her semifinal appearance in 2012 and quarterfinal finish last year, so that should give her a mental edge as well.

There is no question that the majority of the cards are in Kerber's hands in Thursday's match.  She is the better player and is presently playing the superior level of tennis.  But as this year's Wimbledon has already shown, that will not necessarily equate to an easy victory for Kerber or even guarantee she will walk away with the win.  It simply means that the odds are in her favor, and she should live up to her seeding by being the player to advance to the third round.

Rafael Nadal

Rafael Nadal vs. Dustin Brown

The early rounds of majors are not known for producing the most intriguing matches. Yet every once in a while, a match comes along featuring contrasting styles and a shared history that suggests that the match might not be quite as straightforward as it initially seems.  Such a case may develop in the second-round encounter that pits Rafael Nadal against Dustin Brown.

Few, if any, would argue against naming Nadal as the significant favorite in this match.  The former No. 1 may be enduring one of his worst seasons in a decade, but he is still ranked within the top 10.  Additionally, he has proven time and time again that he is up to the task of getting the job done at the biggest tournaments in the sport.  The Spaniard has 14 Grand Slam titles to his name, and two of them came on these very lawns of Wimbledon. His results coming into this year's Championships have been sub-par by his lofty standards, but he is still in a fairly advantageous position in which many other players would love to find themselves.

One of the players who would probably be happy to trade places with Nadal is his opponent, Brown.  The German is currently ranked outside the top 100, has never been ranked higher than No. 78, and not surprisingly, has a sub-.500 win-loss record in singles. He has not fared much better in doubles, although he did nearly break into the top 40 of those rankings.  Suffice it to say, he perfectly fits the description of the struggling journeyman on tour and cannot hold a candle to Nadal.

With the vast differences in their career trajectories, it would seem almost inevitable that this will turn into a routine victory for Nadal.  Indeed, odds heavily favor it panning out that way.  The Spaniard has greater variety, is more adept at constructing points, and holds a decisive edge in a battle of backhands.  Of even greater importance to the 10th seed is the fact that he is the more consistent of the two, leaving him better equipped to ride out any peaks and valleys that may occur over the course of the match, especially given that it is a best-of-five and not a best-of-three contest.

Dustin Brown

Taking all of Nadal's advantages into consideration, however, the venue and Brown's own style of play do leave the door open for the slight possibility of an upset.  The German cites grass as his preferred surface, and one of his favorite weapons – the serve – is often rewarded on the lawns.  In addition to that, Brown is a very offensive-minded player.  He is always looking to attack the net and not bashful about going for his shots, particularly with his other favorite weapon, the forehand.  If he is firing on all cylinders, Brown does possess the type of game that can trouble a player like Nadal on the quicker surfaces.

In fact, history has already shown that Brown's game can be effective against Nadal.  The two have only had one previous encounter.  It came last season on the grass in Halle, and it was the German who emerged in straight sets.  It is also that result that adds a layer of spice to Thursday's match.  Browns gets to come in knowing that he can defeat Nadal, and just as crucially, Nadal is aware that he is capable of losing to Brown.  With Nadal already not feeling confident, that could be enough to produce a shaky performance from the Spaniard and produce more unforced errors from his racquet than he might otherwise commit under better circumstances.  Such a scenario is a long shot, but if Brown can execute his game and keep it close, there is no telling what may happen.

In the end, chances are Nadal gets through to the third round and does so comfortably.  But nothing has been certain for Nadal in 2015, and Brown is a player who can put together a stellar performance out of nowhere.  It is not likely, but lightning just might strike twice for the German journeyman.