After previewing the women’s semifinals in an earlier article, Nick Nemeroff returns to break down the men’s final four in Madrid.

Rafael Nadal vs. Roberto-Bautista Agut

The King of Clay, Rafael Nadal, will be attempting to reach his first final of the season on European clay against an up-and coming-countryman. With Bautista-Agut making his push into prominence just this season, it’s not overly surprising that these two Spaniards have never faced each other.

Nadal comes into this semifinal looking to recover from his shocking loss in Barcelona to Nicolas Almagro. The form he has displayed this week has been spectacular. After sweeping past Juan Monaco and Jarkko Nieminen, Nadal played his best match of the season so far against Tomas Berdych in the quarterfinals. Bautista-Agut was dealt a pretty nasty draw both here and in Barcelona. In Barcelona, he was defeated by eventual champion Kei Nishikori in the second round. This week in Madrid, he had to overcome Tommy Robredo in the first round, Fernando Verdasco in the second round, and an in-form Santiago Giraldo in the quarterfinals.

Bautista-Agut presents an interesting matchup for Nadal. He plays a brand of tennis that can easily threaten the world No. 1. But this brand of tennis, characterized by flat, audacious shot-making, could also provide Nadal with a quick victory. Bautista-Agut needs to control his aggression and trust that he can hold himself together in protracted rallies. It goes without saying that Bautista-Agut won’t be waiting for Nadal to commit errors, but it will be vital for the lower ranked Spaniard to avoid a reckless hit-or-miss mindset.

Look for Nadal to go heavy and hard after the Bautista-Agut backhand. Bautista-Agut hits his backhand as flat as anyone in the ATP, and he typically doesn’t give himself much margin. Attempting to counteract Nadal’s topspin forehand with high-risk, low-margin backhands is one of the toughest tasks in tennis. Nadal’s experience and level of play should ultimately prove too much for the first-time semifinalist.

Prediction: Nadal in two sets

Kei Nishikori vs. David Ferrer

Ferrer certainly won’t have fond memories of the last time he played Nishikori. Ferrer found himself on the precipice of victory, only to be denied four match points in the final-set tiebreak that he lost to Nishikori in Miami. The head-to-head between Nishikori and Ferrer is split at three wins apiece. Five of their six previous encounters took place on hard courts, and they never have played on clay.

After defeating Nadal and losing to Stanislas Wawrinka in Monte Carlo, Ferrer incurred a mind-boggling defeat at the hands of Teymuraz Gabashvili in Barcelona. Despite this, Ferrer has looked very good in Madrid, particularly in his last two matches against John Isner and Ernests Gulbis. He needed only the minimum of four sets to get past two of the biggest power merchants in tennis.

Nishikori’s last few weeks have been nothing short of remarkable. After winning Barcelona with the loss of just one set, Nishikori has reached the Madrid quarterfinals without dropping a single set. Yet Ferrer will be the toughest opponent Nishikori has had to face on the red dirt this season.

The X’s and O’s of this matchup are not very clear. From the baseline, Nishikori and Ferrer are both technically sound and incredibly resilient. Nishikori would benefit from going after Ferrer’s forehand to force Ferrer to play more backhands on the move. Nishikori’s forehand and backhand are both extremely good, so it would be difficult to argue attacking one wing over the other if you’re Ferrer.

One area where both guys aren’t overly formidable is on the serve. Considering how well both men return serve, expect a lot of service breaks and risks taken by the server to protect their service games. When two players are so closely matched, it often comes down to who wins a higher percentage of the big points. This match is pretty close to a coin flip, but I would give the Spaniard a slight edge.

Prediction: Ferrer in three sets