When the men’s draw appeared at the BNP Paribas Open, many eyes drifted toward the projected third-round clash between Rafael Nadal and Fernando Verdasco. Friends and occasional doubles partners, the two Spanish lefties had contested one of the most entertaining matches at this year’s Australian Open. There, Verdasco had brought Nadal’s momentum from a strong fall campaign to an abrupt halt, rallying from two sets to one down for a stirring five-set victory. That match marked the underdog’s third victory in their last four meetings after Nadal had dominated their rivalry before.

Verdasco also had enjoyed the smoother early route of the two Spaniards, benefiting from a second-round retirement by Martin Klizan. On the other hand, Nadal narrowly escaped the net-rushing Gilles Muller after saving two break points late in their third set. He had started that match impressively before losing the plot, however, and he needed a similarly strong start to turn the tide of his recent matchups with his compatriot.

There would be no secrets between two men who have played so often (17 times) and know each other so well. The less consistent and durable player, Verdasco would need to red-line his game by aiming for the lines as soon as possible, while Nadal could expect to win the majority of the longer points. The surface at Indian Wells had played relatively slowly for a hard court, which would seem to favor Rafa in weathering Verdasco’s first strikes and extending the rallies.

Virtually everything favored Nadal in the first set, during which he jumped out to the same fast start as in his opening encounter with Muller. Verdasco donated a dismal break of serve in the second game, which included two double faults. That would be an omen for both his serve during the rest of the match and his fortunes in the rest of the set. For his part, Nadal exuded confidence in every area of his game. He consolidated the initial break with a hold at love, punctuated by an ace, and throughout the set he used his serve as a weapon rather than merely as a point-starting shot. Nadal also positioned himself aggressively to return serve, striking a forehand return winner for a second break. Aided by crisp footwork, his two-handed backhand penetrated the court with conviction as he mostly eschewed slices.

After 27 minutes, a set in which even the net cords went Rafa’s way ended with his first bagel of the season. Fortunately for the fans, the second set would prove to be far more competitive and complicated. Verdasco clearly needed something positive to happen at the outset for him to regain his shot-making swagger. An early lull by Nadal on serve gave him the opportunity that he needed, and the two Spaniards traded four consecutive breaks to start the set. While Verdasco’s serve never struck its targets with consistent effectiveness, the accuracy of Nadal’s serve also started to dwindle. He also began to retreat further behind the baseline, and his groundstrokes grew more tentative.

Once the pair each held serve for 3-3, however, the set settled into an uneasy equilibrium. The level of play languished below what one would expect from both men, each of whom struggled to string together several quality points. The staccato rhythm of the relatively short rallies seemed to slightly favor Verdasco. He found a half-chance at 4-4 30-30 but pummeled a bold forehand into the high part of the net. Nadal soon moved within two points of the match, only to let his opportunity slip away just as uneventfully. Both men did just enough to hold onto their serves as the set plowed into a tiebreak.

At this stage, one might have fancied Verdasco’s chances to force a final set, since he had won five of his last seven tiebreaks against Nadal. Rafa himself would admit afterward that he expected Verdasco to win the tiebreak as the superior server of the two. And in fact the fifth seed quickly fell behind. Crushing a return winner off an 80-mph second serve, Verdasco created three set points. The first two of them were on his serve, a golden opportunity to level the match that he squandered with questionable shot selection. Before long, Verdasco would face a match point at 6-7, which he saved with an emphatic ace. After a few more twists and turns, the underdog earned a fifth set point and the third on his serve. Surely the third time would be the charm?

It was not to be. After a tense rally in which both men guided rather than struck their groundstrokes, reluctant to roll the dice and attempt a winner, Verdasco sprayed a cross-court backhand into the doubles alley. That would be his last chance. One last double fault handed Nadal another opportunity to close out the match, which he did in uneventful fashion by a 6-0 7-6(9) margin.

No doubt relieved to escape the same fate that he suffered in Melbourne, Nadal will move forward to a fourth-round meeting tomorrow with a rising ATP star in Alexander Zverev. He still must sharpen his consistency to mount a charge at a fifth final in the desert, especially with Novak Djokovic and Kei Nishikori lurking in his half of the draw. But for a man who relies as much on confidence and inner calm as the Spaniard, escaping the cauldron of the second-set tiebreak should have gone some distance toward boosting his spirits. Discussing the match afterward, he said “I feel like I deserve this win because also I lost some tough matches.” As for Verdasco, the manner in which the first set and its 74-minute sequel unfolded testified to the Jekyll-and-Hyde nature of the flamboyant Spaniard. He remains a spectacularly dangerous yet spectacularly unpredictable player who can upset anyone on any given day—but probably will not.