Two of the Davis Cup’s most successful nations historically, Great Britain and the USA will square off in round one of the 2014 Davis Cup World Group. The winner advances to the quarterfinals of the World Group, while the loser will be forced into the World Group qualifying playoffs, to fight to remain in the World Group.  The tie is taking place on outdoor clay in San Diego, at the home of the San Diego Padres baseball team, Petco Park.

Great Britain is returning to the World Group this year, while the USA made the quarterfinals of the World Group last year. Both nations aren’t at their strongest for tennis right now, but the tie still has some star power. Great Britain will bring top-10 player Andy Murray, while the USA has the legendary doubles team of Bob and Mike Bryan. 

Joining Murray for Great Britain is the journeyman James Ward, who has played some great Davis Cup matches under his flag. The visitors also include rising talent Kyle Edmund and quality doubles specialist Colin Fleming. Team USA will rely on Sam Querrey, who is consistent but has not been at his best anytime recently, and an in-form Donald Young. American No. 1 and Davis Cup stalwart John Isner failed to recover from an ankle injury sustained in January in time to participate in this tie.

The USA has chosen to host the tie on clay to blunt the skill set of Murray, who is the best singles player on either team. This tie should be quite close, since neither team is great on clay.

Murray reached the quarterfinals at the Australian Open and is still working his way back into top form after back surgery. He played reasonably well but not brilliantly in Melbourne, and he will have to adjust quickly to the change in surface. Murray has not played much clay-court tennis in a long time. Still, against Querrey and Young, he will be the favorite.

The Bryans should be favored in the doubles rubber over the likely pairing of Murray/Fleming, although the win isn’t a total lock as it used to be for Team USA.  (The Bryans lost both of their Davis Cup rubbers last year to underdog teams from Brazil and Serbia.) Thus, the tie likely will come down to the matches pitting Ward against Querrey and Young.

Ward is, as mentioned, a journeyman who has never been ranked inside the top 130. He does own one Challenger title and two Futures titles on clay, but his best play comes on faster surfaces such as grass and indoor hard courts. Ward defeated Dmitry Tursunov in a five-set Davis Cup upset last year on indoor hard, one of the wins that helped Great Britain reach the World Group.  His recent form has been poor, though, for he is just 1-3 this month.

It is puzzling that British captain Leon Smith did not call on Edmund given his current form, along with the fact he plays well under pressure. Born in South Africa, the 19-year old Edmund has performed admirably against regular ATP-level competition. He played a close match with Vasek Pospisil on hard courts in Chennai at the start of this year and nearly defeated Gilles Simon in Eastbourne last year. 

Querrey must aim to play as he did in the first two rounds in Melbourne, rather than as he did in his pedestrian showing against Fabio Fognini in round three. Young needs to keep his strong current form, coming off a third-round effort in Melbourne, and adjust quickly to the difference in surfaces.

Prediction:  USA d. Great Britain 3-2

Murray is 2-1 against Young, with all their matches taking place on hard courts and all in 2011. Murray is 5-1 against Querrey, all of those meetings also on faster surfaces and the most recent in 2012. Ward received a retirement against Querrey on grass but otherwise has not faced either American.

Murray should handle both Young and Querrey for two singles wins, while the Saturday doubles rubber should go to the Bryans. In the other two singles matches, Querrey and Young are the favorites. They should defeat Ward to clinch the tie. If Smith decides to go with Edmund against Young in a decisive fifth rubber on Sunday, though, the result could be different.