Madison Keys versus Alison Riske

Every competitor hopes to play her best at a slam, but even more so when it is her home slam.  Madison Keys is someone fans have looked to as one of the most likely candidates to carry the torch for American tennis, and she unquestionably is eager to further prove her candidacy by putting together a strong performance at Flushing Meadows.  Her opponent and countrywoman, Alison Riske, will be aiming to do the same, but only one of them will have the chance to do so by the time this first round comes to a close.

The smart money would be on Keys, the eighth seed.  Her career thus far has been filled with sporadic highs and lows, including a semifinal showing at the Australian Open last season, but she has started to put together some consistency in 2016.  She won the title in Birmingham, reached the semifinals of the Olympics, and she reached the finals of the prestigious events in both Rome and Montreal.  Equally important, she has reached the second week of the last five slams, and she will be keen to continue that trend.

Riske has not enjoyed nearly the same level of success as her younger compatriot.  Her highest ranking has been Number 40 and she currently resides just inside the Top 60.  None of that is to say that people should be dismissing her chances in this battle, however. She has been to three finals this season, including Shenzhen, Eastbourne, and Nottingham, reached the semifinals of Stanford earlier this summer where she put together an entertaining match against Venus Williams and pushed Svetlana Kuznetsova the distance before bowing out in Cincinnati.    She is unlikely to be intimidated by Keys.

 The fact that she has held her own against higher-ranked and more-decorated opposition than her fellow American is not the only reason why Riske is unlikely to feel inferior in this match, though.  Despite only defeating Keys once in five meetings, their last two, including earlier this year in Madrid went three sets.  Furthermore, Riske has the luxury of being the underdog, which should afford her the opportunity to swing away more freely.  Keys, by contrast, has all of the pressure placed squarely on her shoulders.  All of the success she has enjoyed this season should breed belief, but it also brings with it greater expectations – expectations that are likely to be magnified under a microscope while competing at her native slam.  How she tempers those expectations and subsequently her nerves will play a role in the outcome of this match.

The level of play from the eighth seed will also play a prime factor in determining the outcome of this match.  Riske is a solid and aggressive baseliner, unafraid to pull the trigger where she sees fit.  That said, she does not have anywhere near the weight of shot of Keys off the ground or on her serve.  If Keys is firing on all cylinders, she can hit her compatriot right off the court, in which case the onus will be on Riske to red-line her game and go outside her comfort zone.  If Keys is off, then Riske has the weapons to make the most of her good fortune.

This is certainly one of the more intriguing opening encounters, especially to fans of American tennis.  On paper, Keys should win.  She is the higher-ranked player for a reason, has enjoyed so much success this season, and with her more powerful weaponry, is essentially holding all of the cards.  But the first round of a major is never easy, and playing against a countrywoman is even more difficult.  It is hard to bet against Keys, and if she rises to the occasion, she will advance to the second round.  If she does not, then Riske could make things a little more complicated.

Milos Raonic versus Dustin Brown

With every slam, there is plenty of chatter about who are the favorites and who are the dark horses to win the title.  For the better part of the last decade, anyone who was not a member of the Big 4 was considered a dark horse, but that has perhaps changed at this year's US Open.  Milos Raonic is a man who has arguably made the move from dark horse to title contender, albeit an outside contender.  He will look to live up to that billing when he kicks off his US Open campaign against Dustin Brown.

Hands down Raonic is the heavy favorite in this contest.  He has been remarkably consistent this season, reaching the quarterfinals or better at the majority of the events he has entered, including the semifinals of the Australian Open and final of Indian Wells.  He broke new ground at the majors by reaching his maiden championship final at Wimbledon, and he is presently ranked Number 6, just two spots below his career-high of Number 4.  He has reached the fourth round three of the last four years here, and would dearly love to build on that by reaching new heights in New York.

Truth be told, Brown cannot hold a candle to what Raonic has accomplished.  The journeyman German actually has a losing career win-loss record, and he has spent the bulk of his career playing at the Challenger level.  None of that seems to matter to Brown though when he takes to the court.  He is a big-match player, capable of producing scintillating tennis against the sport's best on the grandest stages, much like he did against Rafael Nadal a few years ago on Centre Court at Wimbledon.  He is sure to get up for this match against the Canadian and could make things entertaining. 

To some degree, Raonic and Brown do share some similarities.  They both look to inflict damage with their forehands and serves, and both tend to venture forward more than most on tour.  The issue for Brown is that Raonic typically does those things more consistently and with more power.  The fifth seed's backhand, one of the weakest parts of his game, is also more solid than the German's.  Rather than solid, Brown tends to be unorthodox.  He unabashedly goes for the lower-percentage shots, but when they are falling in, they frequently prove adept at making his opponents uncomfortable.  If Brown is having one of those days where everything he touches seems to turn to gold, then an upset could be in the cards.

As noted earlier, Brown should have no trouble believing he can pull off an upset in this encounter.  It was his free-swinging, gutsy, high-risk, high-reward level of tennis that garnered him the upset over Nadal at Wimbledon, so he knows he could go out and do the same against Raonic.  If Brown does come out playing that brand of magical tennis, it will be up to Raonic to ride out the storm and not panic.  That may be easier said than done, however, as after all that he has accomplished this year, he has never contested a major under greater pressure to come up with the goods.  He was not ready for the moment earlier in his career, and he has to illustrate that he is ready for it now.

Odds are Raonic is ready for the moment, or at least as far as going deep in Flushing Meadows.  Not that one can put anything past Brown.  He is a dynamic showman able to produce the odd, awe-inspiring performance that can get the better of his opponents.  But it is hard to catch lightening in a bottle and short of some help from the Canadian, it is difficult to envision this one ending in anything but a Raonic victory.