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Gasquet, Gulbis, Youzhny Set to Star on Day 3

Jan 14th 2014

ATP columnist Nick Nemeroff returns with three key clashes to watch as the second round starts.

Richard Gasquet

Nikolay Davydenko vs. Richard Gasquet

Richard Gasquet has lost in the fourth round of the Australian Open four times. Nikolay Davydenko has lost in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open four times. Neither wants to be sent home packing before they get a chance to right the ship and have a personal best tournament Down Under. While a Gasquet berth in the quarterfinals is substantially more plausible than a Davydenko semifinal appearance, both men have proven their ability to hang with and beat the best in the world.

2013 was a stellar year for Richard Gasquet. The Frenchman found his way past the round of 16 of a major for the second time in his career at the US Open where he went on to beat David Ferrer in five sets in the quarterfinals before losing to Rafael Nadal in the semifinal. Gasquet also won titles in Doha, Montpelier, and Moscow in 2013. All of these successes led to Gasquet reaching the ATP World Tour Finals for only the second time in his career.

Davydenko went 22-22 in 2013, hovered between Nos. 37-48 in the rankings, and reached his only final in Doha.  At Doha, in fact, he lost to Gasquet in three sets.

Gasquet’s first-round match over countryman David Guez was a relatively straightforward three-set victory. By contrast, Davydenko was forced to rally from two sets to one down against Lukasz Kubot to cement his spot in the second round. Gasquet has dominated the head-to-head in this series having won six of their eight matches, including two matches in 2013.

Observers of a Davydenko-Gasquet match are treated to a study in contrasts. Gasquet prefers to do his heavy lifting from far behind the baseline, whereas Davydenko prefers pressing his cause inside the baseline. With temperatures exceeding 105 degrees, don’t be surprised if Gasquet approaches the match a bit differently than he would if the heat wasn’t such a major concern.

That said, Davydenko is getting long in the tooth and isn’t the player he used to be. Even if he is able to produce the spectacular on-the-rise ball-striking for which he is so well known, keeping it up for the course of several hours in extreme heat is a different story.

Prediction: Gasquet in four sets

Ernests Gulbis

Sam Querrey vs. Ernests Gulbis

Ernests Gulbis was not one of the lucky men offered a kind draw. After having to face Juan Monaco in the first round, Gulbis will now face ball-bashing American Sam Querrey.

In his match against Monaco, Gulbis was placed in a serious spot of strain. Dropping the first set 6-1, it looked like it was going to be a trying day for Gulbis and the rackets unfortunate enough to be in his bag at the time. Fortunately for those rackets, Gulbis was able to regroup and power his way through Monaco in four sets. Despite exhibiting striking offense throughout the match, Gulbis committed 79 unforced errors, a count he will need to reduce against Querrey.

Querrey’s first round match was also a four-setter, which saw the American beat Colombian Santiago Giraldo. The head-to-head between them is 2-2, but Querrey won’t be telling his grandchildren stories about the last time they met.  On that occasion, he blew a 4-0 third-set lead and double-faulted on the last two points of a third-set tiebreak at Delray Beach last year.

In terms of tactics, hotter conditions typically translate to balls flying faster through the air and moving more quickly through the court. Add two players with explosive games to this equation, and you get your fair share of winners and unforced errors.

Gulbis is by far the better mover, and his weakness, his forehand, is less easily exploited than is Sam Querrey’s weakness, his backhand. Gulbis has one of the best backhands in the world and should be able to maximize the backhand-to-backhand exchanges, forcing Querrey to consistently hit backhands or attempt to hit more difficult forehands from his backhand side.

Prediction: Gulbis in three sets

Mikhail Youzhny

Mikhail Youzhny vs. Florian Mayer

In a match more aptly suited to the lush grass of Wimbledon, Mikhail Youzhny and Florian Mayer provide us with an extremely high quality second-round match.

The impassioned Russian is currently ranked world No. 15 and enters 2014 having gone 39-24 in 2014, which included titles in Gstaad and Valencia. Youzhny also reached at least the fourth round in the final three majors of 2013, highlighted by a quarterfinal appearance at the US Open. He soundly defeated another German, Jan-Lennard Struff, in his first match in straight sets.

Florian Mayer’s slam performance in 2013 fell far below expectations. Only winning three matches in slams the entire year, Mayer has plenty of room to move upward in 2014. The German breezed through his first round match against young American Denis Kudla. He Mayer leads the head-to-head 4-3, but the two have split their two meetings on hard courts.

Youzhny and Mayer are both sly craftsmen on the court. Expect a lot of variety, net approaches, and well-placed shot making throughout the match. Although this isn’t a marquee men’s match, it may end up being the most captivating match of the day. There are a lot of ways to win tennis points, and if you are able to catch this match, you’ll probably end up seeing most them from these two experienced veterans. I would be surprised if this match doesn’t go four or five sets, nor would I be surprised if Mayer ends up scoring the upset.

Prediction: Youzhny in five sets