After a staggering upset of world No. 1 Rafael Nadal, the Monte Carlo semifinals look different from what most expected.  Nick Nemeroff resets the picture by previewing Saturday’s action.

David Ferrer vs. Stanislas Wawrinka

The Spaniard leads the head-to-head in this matchup 7-5, including a 5-2 advantage on clay. The most recent meeting between these two took place at the World Tour Finals last season, a match that Wawrinka won in three sets. Wawrinka also got the best of Ferrer on clay in the Oeiras final last year.

Coming into this match, Wawrinka has only had to play two matches and four sets. He took out Marin Cilic in the second round and Milos Raonic in the quarterfinals. Ferrer delivered the shock of the tournament by taking out Rafael Nadal in straight sets in the quarterfinals. Before this tournament, Ferrer had not beaten Nadal on clay since 2004.

In terms of points, this is a wonderful opportunity for both players to protect themselves from any disappointing results later in the clay-court season. Wawrinka has 600 points to defend in Madrid and 360 points to defend at the French Open. Ferrer has 1,200  points to defend from his runner-up finish at the French Open last year.

If Ferrer plays at the same level he showed against Nadal, and Wawrinka plays at the same level he showed against Marin Cilic, this match could go either way. It will be extremely intriguing to see how Ferrer deals with Wawrinka’s backhand. Ferrer’s most formidable shot is his inside-out forehand, which plays into Wawrinka’s elite one-handed backhand. Ferrer’s inside-out forehand must be hit with depth and width. If his inside-out forehands fail to possess these qualities on a consistent basis, Wawrinka will have an open window to drive his backhand at a cross-court angle or down the line.

Ferrer’s depth off the ground, foot speed, and defensive skills should make it tough for Wawrinka to execute his offensive-oriented game plan.

Prediction: Ferrer in three sets

Novak Djokovic vs. Roger Federer

These archrivals are seeing a lot of each other these days. In the last four tournaments that the two have played (Dubai, Indian Wells, Miami, Monte Carlo), Djokovic and Federer have met three times. Federer leads the head-to-head 17-16, but the two have split their six career clay-court matches.

Both Federer and Djokovic were forced to rally from a set down in their quarterfinal matches. Federer squeezed through a tight second-set tiebreak before taking out Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 6-1 in the third set. Djokovic lost the first set to Guillermo Garcia-Lopez before winning a close second set and also running away with the decider.

Federer did not play Monte Carlo last year, but he does have 600 points to defend later this spring in Rome. Djokovic has 1000 points to defend in Monte Carlo, coming into the tournament as the defending champion.

The key play that Djokovic should use on a consistent basis is the heavy kick first serve out wide on the ad side. Tsonga used this serve over and over in the quarterfinals against Federer, drawing a lot of errors and saving a lot of break points.

The key for Federer in this match will be to hang in the long rallies without becoming impatient. Federer’s larger racket head should increase his baseline consistency and make it tougher for Djokovic to extract simple errors, particularly off the backhand side.

In his match against Garcia-Lopez, Djokovic seemed content for the first set and a half to keep the ball in the middle of the court. This is a tactic that will undoubtedly not work against Federer, who would welcome the idea of Djokovic feeding him steady pace up the middle of the court.

This is an extremely tough match to pick, but ultimately I think Djokovic’s defense and persistence will prove too much for the Swiss to get through.

Prediction: Djokovic in three sets