Rafael Nadal is known as the King of Clay. If such a title existed for hard courts, it would certainly belong to Novak Djokovic. But as the Serb and the rest of the tennis world has found out, the Spanish bulldozer is prepared to expand his dominion.

Nadal has not lost a single match on hard courts in 2013. He has recorded wins over Tomas Berdych, Roger Federer, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Novak Djokovic during this absolutely phenomenal stretch.

Nadal’s iron fist has reigned over the European clay court swing for years. From Monte Carlo to Madrid to Rome and through Roland Garros, it is all Nadal all the time. At times, the clay court season seemed to be nothing short of a formality. Of course all of the matches must be contested, and for good reason, but as a spectator of the game whenever the clay court season rolled around, people would automatically pencil in Nadal to win every match that he contested. It is almost impossible to be a favorite against this man on clay. A feeling of helplessness and despair was what Nadal consistently cast over his herds of victims.

This feeling of helplessness has begun to translate to the hard courts in 2013. Although to a much lesser extent, Nadal’s predictable yet unstoppable patterns swallow opponents from start to finish.

But it must be said that Nadal’s command over the clay courts has had its lulls. And only one man, Novak Djokovic, has proven to be anything close to what can be seen as a consistent challenger to Nadal’s clay-court dominance. As mentioned, Djokovic took Nadal out in consecutive weeks in Rome and Madrid in 2011, one of the more incredible accomplishments of Novak’s well-decorated career. The Serb ended Nadal’s run of eight consecutive titles in Monte Carlo and most recently, was two service holds away from handing Nadal his second career loss at Roland Garros.

Now, Djokovic has the opportunity on his preferred surface to end Nadal’s spectacular 2013 run on hard courts. It would seem that if any man were to stop Nadal’s run on hard courts, it would be the one who has troubled him so often on his beloved clay.

For Djokovic, a loss in tomorrow’s final would be an unprecedented loss in their rivalry as Djokovic has never lost two straight outdoor hard court matches to Nadal. (He fell to the Spaniard in a third-set tiebreak at the Rogers Cup this summer.)  After his painful losses at the French Open and Wimbledon, Djokovic surely does not want to suffer another defeat in having been so close to the title especially on a hard court.

In regards to the strategic component of this match, here is a breakdown of who holds the edge in each part of the game:

Forehand- Nadal

Backhand- Djokovic

Serve- Nadal

Return of serve- Djokovic

Net play- Nadal

Defense- Djokovic

Movement- Even

Fitness- Even

Intangibles- Nadal

The key exchange in this match will be the cross-court rallies between Nadal’s forehand and Djokovic’s backhand. In 2011, when Djokovic won all six of his matches against Nadal, he owned these exchanges. Nadal unswervingly attempted to hammer his lethal topspin forehand into the Djokovic backhand to almost no avail. Novak’s flawless technique and balance allowed him to step in and take the Nadal forehand before it soared out of his desired strike zone. If you look at highlights from the 2011 US Open final, it would appear that Nadal thought that he was facing Federer with his relentless attacks of the Djokovic backhand.

As these exchanges unfolded, Nadal’s predictability allowed Djokovic to camp out on the backhand side and eventually end the cross-court stalemate by rocketing backhands up the line. An increasingly aggressive Nadal likely has learned from this. Thus, look for him to be more proactive in terms of taking the first strike up the line in these exchanges.

Nadal is not the only one guilty of being overly predictable in this matchup. In many of their previous matches, Djokovic has gone regularly with the V attack on second-serve points. This means that he will serve out wide, then take the next ball and put it into the opposite corner. If Nadal wants to forestall this tactic, he should keep his returns out of the middle of the court.

Expect Djokovic to attempt to place as many of his returns of serve as possible to the Nadal backhand. Since Nadal’s serve-forehand first strike combination is so deadly, it will be crucial for Novak to limit the frequency with which Nadal can pull off this specific play.

This match might be considerably more problematic for Novak than their last two finals at hard-court majors. We have seen an increasingly aggressive Nadal in 2013 on hard courts. In 2011 and 2012, it felt as if Rafa had a few extra gears of aggressiveness that he did not utilize.

Nadal leads the head to head 21-15, but Djokovic has won eight out of their 13 meetings since 2011 and 11 of their 17 meetings on hard courts overall.

The odds makers have made Nadal the slight favorite, but for me, this match is a complete tossup. Neither man looked to be at his best in their semifinal contests.  But if their last US Open match, the 2011 final, is any indication of things to come, this one should be a thriller.

Prediction: Djokovic in five sets