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FollowDjokovic, Wawrinka, Ferrer Aim to Start Second Week Strong
Three of the top eight men face dangerously streaky opponents as the second week begins at the Australian Open.
Novak Djokovic v. Fabio Fognini
World No. 2 Novak Djokovic will like his chances as he takes on Italian Fabio Fognini for a spot in the quarterfinals. Fognini has only ever been past the third round of a major on one occasion, so it’s safe to say there is a massive discrepancy between the experience Djokovic and Fognini have in dealing with these types of matches.
The Italian comes into this match having only dropped one set through the first three rounds. He has scored convincing, confidence-boosting victories over Alex Bogomolov, Jarkko Nieminen, and Sam Querrey. Djokovic enters this contest without having dropped a set—one of eight players who haven’t conceded a set. Unsurprisingly, all four members of tennis’ Big Four have won all of their sets this week.
The good news for Fognini is that he has beaten Djokovic before. The bad news is that it occurred the first time they ever played, which was eight years ago in Rome. Since then, Djokovic has won their last seven meetings, including three hard-court wins.
The task for Fognini is no easy undertaking. He’ll need to bring forth near-perfect play if he wants to take three sets from a six-time grand slam champion whom he hasn’t seen the finish line against in nearly 10 years. Adding insult to injury for Fognini, he’ll have to do all of this at Djokovic’s best tournament, one that he has won the last three years.
The Italian is quite the deceptive player. On first glance, he appears to be yet another counterpuncher with no weapons, much like his countryman Andreas Seppi. But, given closer scrutiny, it is clear that Fognini is a small man who packs a big punch.
Djokovic, having played Fognini eight times, will know well that his opponent is capable of hitting winners from any position on the court. Combining mechanically proficient strokes with world-class foot speed, Fognini has proven his ability to litter the highlight reel with breathtaking shots. But when Djokovic is standing across the net, it seems necessary to attempt to make every shot highlight-reel worthy.
If Fognini believes every shot needs to be spectacular, which he probably does, he’ll be leaving himself susceptible to pressing too hard. It’ll be crucial for the Italian to realize that going for too many winners will likely create a situation where he is firing away too many unforced errors. Finding a happy medium is the delicate balance that he will struggle to strike.
Prediction: Djokovic in three sets
Stanislas Wawrinka vs. Tommy Robredo
Just the thought of what the rallies in this match could amount to gives me chills. If you happen to be on the Australian Open grounds Sunday, this is one match you absolutely must see. Wawrinka and Robredo own two of the most lethal yet beautiful one-handed backhands on the planet. In addition, they are both immensely intelligent and will provide a mesmerizing point construction exhibition.
Robredo’s first three rounds have been exceptionally riveting. After coming back from two sets to one down against Lukas Rosol, Robredo won hotly contested four-set matches against Julien Benneteau and Richard Gasquet.
Wawrinka’s journey to the fourth round has been much simpler. Of the nine sets Wawrinka would have needed to win if his matches were played all the way through, Wawrinka has only had to win four of those sets. Wawrinka’s third-round opponent, Vasek Pospisil, decided to withdraw from the tournament due to a lingering back injury.
Robredo leads the head-to-head in this matchup 6-1 and hasn’t lost to Wawrinka since 2007. This match should look similar to a back-and-forth chess match. Both Wawrinka and Robredo know how to use all parts of their games and all parts of the court to effectively outmaneuver their opponents.
One specific play Wawrinka will need to use that Robredo’s last opponent, Richard Gasquet, did not is the backhand down the line. Robredo loves running around his backhand, which sometimes leaves the Spaniard hitting forehands from the doubles alley. If Wawrinka receives an inside-out forehand from Robredo from such an ill-advised position on the court, the Swiss would be smart to nail his backhand right up the line.
Prediction: Wawrinka in five sets
Florian Mayer vs. David Ferrer
In a match pitting craft against grit, unseeded Florian Mayer is looking to scalp a seeded player for the third consecutive match. This match should be an interesting skirmish between two guys who break down their opponents in totally distinctive manners.
Mayer has won matches over Denis Kudla, Mikhail Youzhny and Jerzy Janowicz. Ferrer has won matches over Alejandro Gonzalez, Adrian Mannarino, and Jeremy Chardy.
Ferrer leads the head-to-head 4-3, but Mayer won their last meeting in the third round of Shanghai last fall, also on outdoor hard courts. The lanky German’s variety will force Ferrer to deal with an onslaught of unpredictable net approaches, low-lying slice backhands, and a wide selection of forehands fluctuating in pace and spin.
Ferrer’s objective will be to keep Mayer on the move. Once on the move, it’s much more difficult for Mayer to unleash all of the tricks and plays he has stored ready for use. Mayer has been the better player this week, but Ferrer started to pick up steam in his match against Chardy, setting up what should be a tight battle for a quarterfinal berth.
Prediction: Mayer in five sets