In the third Australian Open final between Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray, one man seeks a record-breaking fifth title at this major, while the other seeks his first. Who has the advantage in each area of the game?

Forehand- Murray

I’ll give the slight edge to Murray here. The Scot flattens out his forehand far more than Djokovic does and is more willing to use it as an offensive weapon. Djokovic tends to be a bit more patient off his forehand, using it as a maneuvering shot first and an attacking shot second. Djokovic plays with a bit more margin off that shot, which makes it less likely that it’ll have a streak of errant misses but also decreases the chances that he’ll consistently obtain the first strike.

Backhand- Djokovic

Although many consider Djokovic and Murray to have the two best backhands in the world, it’s hard for me to put Murray ahead of Nishikori based off what we’ve seen from Nishikori in the last season. With that said, Murray’s backhand is right up there. He can drill it cross-court and up the line with regularity while also interjecting nice variety with the slice, something neither Nishikori nor Djokovic does as well. Djokovic’s slice backhand has improved over the last several years, and he has had no problem handling Murray’s slice in their last few matches. No player on the planet defends and attacks off a single shot as well as Djokovic does with his backhand, which gives him the edge off this wing.

Serve- Slight Edge Djokovic

This one caused me to ponder quite a bit. Murray undoubtedly has more pop on his first serve and can dial back and throw in some bombs. In the same breath, his second serve has been below average for years. Since he is known for his disparity between first and second serve speed, look for Djokovic to be on the full-out attack on the second serve. By contrast, Djokovic doesn’t have as much pace on his first serve, but his direction and variety have made his first serve an extremely viable weapon. In addition, Djokovic’s second serve is terrific. He can kick it up deep in the box, making it very difficult for Murray, whom I consider to be the best second-serve returner out there, to attack it.

Return of Serve- Slight Edge Djokovic

Many consider Djokovic to be the greatest returner ever. While Andre Agassi might have something to say about that, Murray also has to be in the discussion. Murray is known as a great returner, but his skills are often underestimated. He is incredibly difficult to ace with his long wingspan, and with his racket and hand manipulation skills, he finds tons of creative ways to get serves back into play. If we are talking about the second-serve return, both these guys are outstanding, but Murray puts his opponents on the defensive and goes after the second serve a bit more than Djokovic. How Djokovic handles Murray’s second serve, which I presume will be with very little respect, could spell Murray’s demise in this match.

Defense- Djokovic

Djokovic is the best defender I’ve ever seen, and Murray is right behind him with Nadal. The Serb’s ability to defend from an open stance position off both sides is something we’ve never seen in this sport and likely will never see again, barring some rapid influx of absurdly flexible youngsters. Murray plays a different type of defense, using his foot speed to scramble and retrieve balls that are seemingly out of human reach. He doesn’t defend hard flat pace through the length of the court as well as Djokovic, but expect these guys to make each other work.

Net play- Murray

As I wrote before Djokovic’s match against Wawrinka, his weakest part of his game is playing in the forecourt. That volley he botched against Wawrinka in the 2014 Australian Open quarterfinals was a wonderful illustration of why Djokovic is best suited to play at the baseline. Don’t get me wrong, that was more or less a fluke, but in the pressure moments, he needs to stay back. Murray, on the other hand, has amazing hands and wonderful racket manipulation skills. If he’s able to find success at net, it’ll be one major advantage he has over Djokovic.

Movement- Even

Both Djokovic and Murray are extremely fast, cover vast expanses of the court, and can chase down any ball sent their way. While I wouldn’t put them in the same category as a Nishikori or Ferrer in terms of pure foot speed, these two aren’t going to draw any comparisons to molasses anytime soon.

Intangibles- DJOKOVIC

Djokovic needs to be capitalized in this category. He’s beaten Murray in seven of their last eight matches and has won their last seven matches on hard courts. The last time Murray beat Djokovic on a hard court was in the 2012 U. S. Open final. Their last meeting took place in the quarterfinals of the Paris Masters last fall, a match that Djokovic won 7-5 6-2. Djokovic also leads the overall head-to-head 15-8. Murray looked much better in their respective semifinals, but that doesn’t really mean too much in a sport where fortunes can change in a matter of seconds.

Prediction:  Djokovic in four sets