2017 may prove to be one the most interesting seasons of the decade with respect to the diversity of title winners. A stroll through the current top-25 rankings and 2016 results reveal similar dynamics that play out among the WTA and ATP tours.

Season Kick-off Challenge for No. 1

We can expect an immediate and ongoing battle to hold the top spot on both tours. Current WTA No. 1, Angelique Kerber overtook Serena Williams at the U. S. Open. In November, Andy Murray captured the No. 1 spot in Paris from Novak Djokovic and held his ground in London to finish the year on top. Given the current ranking point spread between the No. 2 and No. 3 positions, the battle for No. 1 will initially be an elite circle of two competitors.

WTA No. 3, Aga Radwanska is at present approximately 1400 points behind No. 2, Serena while ATP No. 3, Milos Raonic will have to double ranking points to catch up to No. 2. Keep in mind ranking is not a straight calculation. It depends in part on the prior season tournament performance. As the 2016 Australian Open finalists Andy, Novak, Angelique, and Serena have significant points to defend. A lesser performance in Melbourne will be an immediate unwelcome deduction.

Classic Champions Return

The WTA will see the return of Maria Sharapova after her suspension in time for the French Open. New mom Victoria Azarenka has spoken about a “quick” return. Lastly, Petra Kvitova is on the mend from recent injuries after a home invasion attack. Following a successful surgery, the prognosis is a 3-month recovery before bearing weight on her left hand. Petra is determined to return to the tour. Where, when and in what form are the questions to be answered by these former Grand Slam champions.

Legends Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal ended 2016 early to attend to injuries. Expect their focus to be more on Gram Slam performances and managing their schedule rather than winning every tournament. Both appear in good form in recent Hopman Cup and Brisbane matches. While their atypical rankings of No. 16 and No. 9 are in part due to lack of tournament play, a climb to the top is not a given due to the quality of the top-25 field. 

Several top-25 players produced quality tennis especially toward the end of 2016. Younger standouts include; Milos Raonic, Alexander Zverev, Dominic Thiem, Lucas Pouille, David Goffin, and Nick Kyrgios. Everyone in this group won a title in 2016 except Goffin. Thiem leads this pack with four 2016 titles.

Next Generation Reaching for New Heights

All of the following young players ended 2016 with a career-high ranking; Karolina Pliskova No. 6, Madison Keys No. 8, Johanna Konta No. 10 and Elina Svitolina No. 14. These women have been steadily climbing taking on top players and finding success. In what appears an odd twist, both Keys and Konta have gone in search of new coaches after a successful 2016. Lindsay Davenport will reunite with Keys while Konta has added distinguished coach Wim Fissette to her team. Fissette played a big part in Azarenka’s 2016 comeback. Change yet another variable to play out.

In 2016, the ATP young guns that reached career high rankings included; Milos Raonic No. 3, Dominic Thiem No. 8, David Goffin No. 11, Nick Kyrgios No. 13, Lucas Pouille No. 15 and Alexander Zverev No. 24. While Zverev is No. 24, he took out Stan to capture his first ATP title in St. Petersburg. Noteworthy veterans with a strong finish are Stan Wawrinka No. 4, Marin Cilic No. 6, and Gael Monfils No. 7. With the taste of success, reaching new heights will remain on the 2017 agenda.

Health – Always The Wild Card

The Australian Open draw already has a list of withdrawals to date including Madison Keys and Juan Martin Del Potro. Health and schedule management go hand in hand. Players must find the right balance to ensure the longevity that the tennis season requires. The 2016 Roger and Rafa narrative highlights health as the spoiler of even the best-prepared competitors.

Year-End Unpredictable

In 2016, we saw Grand Slam titles split among multiple players rather than falling to a single dominant force. This trend is likely to continue. The blend of young players on the rise, classics renewing their game along with top-10 regulars like Radwanska, Halep, Wawrinka, Nishikori, and Berdych points to opportunity and shake-up potential. Given the player longevity on both tours, retirements may throw an occasional curveball. This single-elimination sport encourages uncertain outcomes. In the uncertain, there is excitement and surprises. The 2017 year-end top-10 is like the Roland Garros weather forecast, unpredictable at best.