Today is Tuesday, May 17th and Rafael Nadal remains at the No. 5 spot in the ATP singles rankings. Looking only at his ranking, that number does not convey the progression of his game, especially on red clay. While a climb back into the top four in time for the French Open would have been ideal, there are still aspects of Nadal’s form that show he may be ready to peak at just the right time.

A deep dive into Nadal’s March to May results reveals a progressively more successful Nadal. There is one outlier, the Miami Open, which was an unfortunate health blip. Let’s consider that one a bye and move on.

March – Indian Wells Semifinalist

Rafa arrived at Indian Wells with optimism and commitment. He was seen practicing with fellow Spaniard and event doubles partner Fernando Verdasco for 2.5 hours on practice court 1 early in the tournament. Rafa fought his way to the semifinal, losing to Nova Djokovic after a tight first set. His notable wins came over Verdasco, phenom Alexander Zverev, and Kei Nishikori, who was challenging Rafa for world No. 5. The Zverev win appeared to be the work of a magician as Nadal rallied from losing the first set and from facing match point in the third set to win the last five games. Sitting two rows behind Francisco Roig, Rafa’s No. 2 coach, I could not believe what I just witnessed as Rafa celebrated the win.

Worth noting: Zverev does not appear to fear anyone. He relishes the chance to compete with the best. Stay tuned.

April - Monte Carlo Champion

Nadal earned his ninth Monte Carlo title by taking out Brit Aljaz Bedene, current No. 15 Dominic Thiem, No. 4 Stan Wawrinka, No. 2 Andy Murray, and current No. 14 Gael Monfils.

April – Barcelona Champion

Winning his ninth title at this tournament as well, Nadal made quick work of the following opponents, winning all of his matches in straight sets:  Marcel Granollers, Albert Montanes, Fabio Fognini, Phillip Kohlschreiber, and Nishikori.

May – Madrid – Semifinalist

Once again, Madrid did not favor Nadal. He lost to world No. 2 and defending champion Andy Murray, 75 64.  Nadal’s second serve and break-point percentage were the deal breakers. Before running up against Murray, Nadal found success over Andrey Kuznetsov, Sam Querrey, and Joao Sousa of Portugal. None of these matches was close, other than the second set he dropped to Sousa.

May – Rome Quarterfinalist

Novak ended Rafa’s run in the Eternal City 75 76(4) in what was a bizarre exchange. Rafa had the upper hand in both sets but was unable to close. Novak seized the opportunities and took over command of both sets.  Rafa did produce solid early-round wins over Nick Kyrgios and again over Kohlschreiber.

In Summary

Rafa has now played 17 matches on clay in April and May with a 15-2 record. He won 12 of these matches in straight sets. His significant losses all involved 7-5 scores and/or tie-break sets, close calls. And while there is no doubt that he did not take advantage of key opportunities in Rome, his ability to put together a string of wins again to capture titles has returned. This is a very positive accomplishment that may restore the belief that seems to have been missing for a while.

Looking to Roland Garros

It is Paris in spring, and what should we expect from Nadal? Over the past three months, Nadal has beaten six top-10 players and taken out players who had been his spoilers in past years, namely Verdasco and Fognini. While the match-up against Djokovic remains a puzzler, Nadal has come closer to beating the world No. 1 than he has in several years.

If Rome revealed anything, it seems Rafa’s own assessment about confidence and nerves being his issue is lingering a bit. Nerves may be the only way to explain his failure to capitalize on a lead he built in both sets. Nadal’s mental confidence, more than any physical concerns, may be his toughest challenge in Paris.

However, the match replays show a Nadal moving well and going for his shots, along with a willingness to play more aggressive (dare I say “offensive”) tennis. Lastly, there is an intangible that no one can deny, desire.

Success in Paris could be Nadal’s sweetest win ever. In the latter stage of his career with doubters lining up, opportunities to add Grand Slam victories to the record books are becoming rare. Rafa needs three Grand Slam titles to tie current record holder Roger Federer at 17. Wins in Monte Carlo and Barcelona seemed to light up Rafa’s smile again, something his fans had been longing to see.

Of course, Nadal holds the record for the most wins in Paris. Nine French Open titles have earned him the label “King of Clay.” With history and momentum on his side, it seems reasonable to believe that the City of Light may once again deliver smiles for the King of Clay.