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FollowAustralian Open ATP Day 1 Preview: Dimitrov, Nadal, Troicki
The first match of any major can be tricky for even the most accomplished contenders. Sunday at the Australian Open brings us a pair of flamboyant shot-makers, a former champion, and two men who won titles just days ago.
Grigor Dimitrov v. Dustin Brown
We may go through the entire tournament without seeing the caliber of shot-making that Dimitrov and Brown have the potential of putting on tomorrow. Outside of Roger Federer, one could make the argument that Dimitrov and Brown fill up the highlight reel more than anyone else.
The German and the Bulgarian take to Show Court 2 at 11 a. m. local time on Monday, meaning fans in Melbourne can begin their Australian Open journey with this match. It really is a must-see encounter.
Brown is one of, if not, the most aggressive tennis player I’ve ever seen—no exaggeration. He hits every shot as if it’s the last one he’ll ever hit on a tennis court, holding nothing back regardless of his opponent, the score, or the venue. His dynamic athleticism, similar to a Gael Monfils, breeds a comparable type of showmanship.
Dimitrov is an extremely athletic specimen, but his shot-making is derived from his outstanding racket work. He’ll execute high quality shots between the legs, behind the back, and really wherever his racket meets the ball.
Dustin Brown could beat any player if he reaches his pinnacle, but Dimitrov is going to make it extremely tough on the German tomorrow. Dimitrov will be able to take command of the points, putting himself on the offensive before Brown gets that chance. On the defensive side of the ball, Dimitrov is a very potent mover and can defend laterally with the best of them.
This should be a very entertaining affair, but expect Dimitrov to get the job done.
Prediction: Dimitrov in four sets
Rafael Nadal v. Mikhail Youzhny
As sketchy as Rafael Nadal’s form is right now, Mikhail Youzhny’s is certifiably bad. Dating back to the end of the 2014 season, the Russian has lost four straight matches and eight consecutive sets. His most recent loss in Doha came to world No. 171 Nikoloz Basilashvili.
Others have pointed to Youzhny’s previous four victories over Nadal as evidence that this could be a trying first-round match for the Spaniard. This doesn’t seem to hold much relevance, considering that Youzhny last solved Nadal seven years ago and hasn’t defeated him in a major in over eight years.
Nadal leads the overall head-to-head 11-4 and has won their last four meetings, including a three-set victory last spring in Rome. Youzhny’s poor play as of late is the bottoming out of a disturbing trend of inconsistency that saw him lose his first match at six tournaments following Wimbledon last year.
It doesn’t really seem to matter how Nadal is playing at this point because as long as he plays even an average match, he should get through this one barring some unexpected reversal in form from Youzhny. Youzhny doesn’t have the firepower, will get battered by Nadal’s two-handed backhand, and isn’t in the physical shape he used to be. All signs point to a Nadal beatdown.
Prediction: Nadal in three sets
Jiri Vesely v. Viktor Troicki
One week ago, Viktor Troicki and Jiri Vesely were qualifying for ATP 250 events in Sydney and Auckland respectively. Tomorrow, they enter the first round of the Australian Open as champions of those respective tournaments. For Troicki, it’s the second of his career, and for the young Vesely, it’s the first of what may be many.
Both were impressive throughout their runs, particularly in the championship matches. Vesely easily disposed of Frenchman Adrian Mannarino in 67 minutes, while Troicki needed just 64 minutes to take down Mikhail Kukushkin in the Auckland final.
It’ll be interesting to see how much of a role fatigue plays in this meeting. Playing eight matches (Troicki) and seven matches (Vesely) in one week is no cakewalk. It’s also a bit unfortunate that these two are in the bottom half of the draw. If they had been put in the top half, they would have received an additional day of rest.
This is a hard match to project. Both guys do different things well, since Troicki is better from the back of the court off the ground, whereas Vesely is a more of a threat off the serve. If Vesely is as passive as he was against Mannarino in the Auckland final, Troicki should make him pay. I think Vesely is going to have a tougher time breaking Troicki than vice versa, but this match really could go either way.
Prediction: Troicki in five sets