Ahead of the 2015 Australian Open, Tennis View takes a look at the men’s contenders for the first major title of the season.

Roger Federer

The 2015 season couldn’t have started any better for Roger Federer, who won a title in the opening week Down Under in Brisbane and simultaneously recorded his 1000th career victory. After a dismal season in 2013, Federer turned things around in 2014 on the back of a new coach, a new racket, and renewed health. The Swiss was forced to battle to the bitter end in the Brisbane final against Milos Raonic, who played one of the best matches of his entire career.

It has always been unwise to count out Federer as a contender in any tournament. Despite not having won a major in two and a half years, he’ll still be a major threat to take the Australian Open. Federer was games away from winning Wimbledon last year and seemed a sure thing to win in the U. S. Open after Djokovic was eliminated, only to be beaten by Marin Cilic, who was playing insanely well.

If Federer can avoid Rafaeal Nadal in the draw and bring out his highest level of tennis, he’ll be right there at the end of the second week.

Novak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic loves the Australian Open. The Serb has thrived Down Under ever since he won his inaugural major title there in 2008, having won four of his seven major titles in Melbourne. The first week of 2015 was an interesting one for Djokovic as he broke tradition and decided to enter a tune-up event prior to the Australian Open. It wasn’t a long stay for Djokovic in Doha, as he was ousted in the quarterfinals by Ivo Karlovic and his superb serving.

The Grand Slams have been harder to come by for Djokovic than many people expected after he rolled over the rest of the tennis world during the 2011 season. Not a year has gone by since 2011 where Djokovic seemed did not seem primed to win multiple majors, yet he has not won more than one in any of the last three seasons.

Theoretically, this would be the major that Djokovic is the least motivated to win because he’s won it so many times already, but a Grand Slam title is a Grand Slam title any way you cut it. He’ll be hungry to rectify for near-misses in majors earlier in his career in 2015 and surely can’t be happy with the way he went down to Stan Wawrinka in 2014.

Right now, Djokovic and Federer are neck and neck in terms of who is the favorite for winning the Australian Open, and a final between these two should be exactly what tournament director Craig Tiley is hoping for.

Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal, and Stan Wawrinka

Andy Murray demolished Rafael Nadal 6-2 6-0 in the exhibition match that those two contested in Abu Dhabi several weeks ago. Despite the fact that Nadal was well out of form, Murray was hitting a big ball and moving very well. 2014 was not Murray’s finest season by any stretch of the imagination, although he was able to slide his way into the World Tour Finals, where he was sent packing by Federer after nearly getting double-bageled. It’s a new year, one where Murray should be playing much better. An Australian Open title is unlikely, but he’ll be a tough out for whoever he faces.

Nadal seems too inconsistent right now to align his level of contention with that of Federer and Djokovic. After getting crushed by Murray in Abu Dhabi, he went on to beat Stan Wawrinka and then backtracked in Doha, losing to world No. 127 Michael Berrer in three sets in a match where he looked invincible in the first set and pedestrian at best in the last two.  Nadal will do his fair share of winning this year, but it won’t come at the Australian Open.

Stan Wawrinka is an enigma. You could make an equal argument for him losing in the first round and for him winning the entire tournament. Obviously, it’s most likely that something in between will happen, but you never know with him. If he’s playing his best tennis, there’s no player that he can’t beat, evidenced by his run to the title last year. But in the same breath, when he’s off the mark, there are a lot of players who can have a good day against him. Expect something deep but not a title.

Milos Raonic, Kei Nishikori, and Grigor Dimitrov

Kei Nishikori is the only one of these three players who could plausibly win this tournament. His game is further along in its development, and he’s the only one with the necessary weapons and consistency (at the moment) that can hold up over seven matches over two weeks. What we saw from Nishikori last year in Madrid and at the U. S. Open proved that he’s ready to go the distance.

Milos Raonic is getting there. He’s close to being a legitimate contender for a major title. His serve is obviously massive, and his movement and forehand are slowly becoming more and more dangerous. He’ll run around his backhand until the end of time, and as we saw against Federer in the Brisbane final, he can unleash inside-out and inside-in forehands at will. His backhand is still very suspect, and it’s still uncertain whether or not his hyper-aggressive playing style can hold up over five sets.

Dimitrov has tons of talent and can make every shot in the book, yet he’s coming up small in the big matches against the best players. The level of aggression we saw from Dimitrov last year against Djokovic at Wimbledon and Nadal at the Australian Open does not come out enough. There are far too many instances in matches when he should be flattening out balls but chooses to play it safe. Granted, he’s not as passive as someone like Gilles Simon, but he’s too passive for someone who wants to win major titles.

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Stay tuned for a women’s contenders preview in a day or so!