After victories by Kei Nishikori and Roger Federer, the World Tour Finals continues with three of the four major champions this year.

Stan Wawrinka v. Tomas Berdych

Wawrinka and Berdych are meeting in the opening match of Group A for the second year in a row. The Swiss No. 2 won their battle in London last year in a tight three-set affair.

Even with titles at the Australian Open and Monte Carlo this year, Wawrinka comes in as the slight underdog in this match. This can be attributed to his poor post-U. S. Open run, a stretch during which he won one match in four tournaments and suffered two defeats to players ranked outside of the Top 80 (Tatsuma Ito and Mikhail Kukushkin). Berdych’s recent run has been astronomically better by comparison. The Czech reached the final in Beijing, won the title in Stockholm, and made the semifinals in Paris.

On the bright side for Wawrinka, he has beaten Berdych the last four times they have played and has done so while dropping at least one set in all four matches. The most pivotal match of their entire rivalry occurred at the beginning of the year in the Australian Open semifinals, a match that Wawrinka narrowly won in four sets before he went on to beat Rafael Nadal in the final.

Based off recent form, it’s difficult to pick Wawrinka in this match. This string of underwhelming losses has been one of the major low points of a strangely inconsistent season for a player who also won a Grand Slam and a Masters Series 1000 title. Forget about beating Berdych—if Wawrinka comes out with any degree of inconsistency this week, he’s going to be in a world of hurt and will have a tough time winning a match against Berdych, Marin Cilic, or Novak Djokovic.

With all of this said, we may be in for an interesting match tomorrow. Berdych’s super-flat, hyper-aggressive baseline game is going to be limited by the slower speed of the court at the 02 Arena. Wawrinka will have more time to laterally cover the baseline and won’t be at the total mercy of Berdych’s power. By the same token, Wawrinka can send the ball for the ride off both wings and typically would be able to expose one of Berdych’s biggest weaknesses—his lateral movement. This will be a task with a higher degree of difficulty on this specific court.

Berdych will need to avoid the Wawrinka backhand if possible, particularly in backhand-to-backhand exchanges. Pitting his weaker wing off the ground against Wawrinka’s strong backhand side is a losing proposition. He’ll also need to make sure he’s stretching Wawrinka to the tramlines. Wawrinka works better from the center of the court and can fall into the trap of overhitting to bail himself out when stretched out wide.  

The Wawrinka return may end up being the x-factor in this match. He loves to block and chip serves back into play, which in turn gives his opponents the offensive initiative. Against Berdych, Wawrinka will need to ensure that he either goes after his returns or is able to block or chip his return deep into the court.

This match is tough to call, but given the 9-5 head-to-head lead for Wawrinka and the pace of the court, the nod goes to the Swiss in this one.

Prediction:  Wawrinka in three sets

Novak Djokovic v. Marin Cilic

In a matchup between the two most recent Grand Slam winners, Wimbledon champion Novak Djokovic will be squaring off against U. S. Open champion Marin Cilic.

Djokovic has dominated this head-to-head, having won all 10 matches these two have contested. Their three most recent meetings have been highly competitive, however, with Cilic pushing Djokovic to a final set in both Indian Wells and Wimbledon and to a fourth set at the French Open.

Their only previous match on an indoor hard court came four years ago in the semifinals of Davis Cup. Djokovic won this match in straight sets, only dropping eight games in the process. As Andy Murray saw with Kei Nishikori on Sunday afternoon, Cilic is a player coming in with personal best results and newfound levels of confidence.

Both also won the most recent tournaments they played in—Cilic in Moscow and Djokovic in Paris.

Typical indoor conditions would help out Cilic in this matchup, but with the court playing as slow as it is, it’s going to be an uphill battle for the Croat as he tries to surge his way past the defensive barriers Djokovic will have set up on his side of the court.

Cilic displayed an unbelievable amount of patience and power at the U. S. Open. He hit timely winner after timely winner in addition to allowing his opponents to dig their own graves in longer, more neutral rallies. Unfortunately, such a strategy will have to be executed at the highest level tomorrow for it to work against the Serb.

This is a winnable match for Cilic, but he’s going to have to peak and hope that Djokovic’s level comes down a few notches from what we saw in Paris.

It’s possible (as is anything in tennis) but don’t expect it.

Prediction:  Djokovic in two sets