Players have spent the tournaments since the Australian Open primarily preparing for the next big event on the tennis calendar, Indian Wells, which is finally here. It is the opening tournament on the ATP Masters 1000 calendar. Some top players and middle tier players alike have been turning in good results and appear primed for quality showings, while other players, including some top names, have looked lost in 2015 and could be in for a very disappointing tournament. Here is a look at those who could break through and those who could crash out in the California desert.

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5: Sergiy Stakhovsky

Stakhovsky has been on the rise all season, and especially over the past month, a career-best month for the Ukrainian who is now inside the top 50 in the rankings. The serve and volley specialist appears to have improved all facets of his game, especially his ability to rush the net and finish strong, after bringing the magician Fabrice Santoro to his coaching team. Look for the dividends to pay off if he can get past American Sam Querrey in round 1 and then perhaps upset Tomas Berdych, whom he pushed to three sets in the Dubai quarterfinals. It’s hard to see him beating Berdych, but it is a winnable matchup for a player with two 500-level quarterfinals in Rotterdam and Dubai and a 250 semifinal in Marseille over the past month. Stakhovsky has already beaten top-30 players Lukas Rosol and Stan Wawrinka, along with young gun Borna Coric, and great things appear to be ahead for him since he has a unique style compared to what players normally face from match to match.

4: Mikhail Kukushkin

The 27-year-old Kukushkin is a very streaky player, but he is entering Indian Wells on a hot streak. The undersized ball-striker helped Kazakhstan shock Italy in Davis Cup over the weekend. He scored straight-set wins over top-50, in-form stalwarts Simone Bolelli and Andreas Seppi. In addition, he’s already reached an ATP final this year in Sydney on hard courts, and with that in mind, he has a good chance at scoring a minor upset over Canadian Vasek Pospisil in the opening round. Then he would be matched up with Andy Murray, a player he has taken a set off of before. In a way, it’s unfortunate Kukushkin drew a top player like Murray in the first two rounds, since he could do a lot of damage in other sections of the draw. Should Kukushkin shock Murray, the sky is the limit, and he could well find his way into the quarterfinals against all odds.

3: Thanasi Kokkinakis

Kokkinakis, who gets a wild card this time after qualifying for Memphis, Delray Beach, and Acapulco has a puncher’s chance at reaching the round of 16, which would be a massive result for the Aussie teenager. His varied game is suited for the surface at Indian Wells, and he cemented his status as a gritty comeback specialist already with a gutsy comeback in the Davis Cup over the weekend against Lukas Rosol. Down two sets to love, and struggling in a hostile environment, Kokkinakis never wavered and summoned his peak abilities to oust the Czech and help inspire his nation to a victory in the tie overall. JL Struff, a relatively promising German, is his first opponent. Struff has posted his best results indoors, so Kokkinakis should have the advantage in that match, and then he would need to upset Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, a top-30 player, to reach the third round. At that stage, No. 10 seed Marin Cilic, coming off a shoulder injury, is likely to await him.

2: David Ferrer

Ferrer has more ATP titles than any other player this season, having won twice on hard courts, in Doha and Acapulco, and once on clay in Rio. The Spanish veteran only has one loss this season, and he avenged that loss by beating top-five player Kei Nishikori in the Acapulco final. Unfortunately, Ferrer is slated to face the best player in the game, Novak Djokovic, in the quarterfinals, but at a minimum he should get past Bernard Tomic and potentially Cilic. Although he hasn’t beaten Djokovic in a while, he has done so before. There were question marks about Ferrer over the past couple of years, but thus far in 2015 those question marks have been erased. He’s going to be a player nobody is going to want to face on either clay or hard courts any time in the near future.

1: Kei Nishikori

NIshikori doesn’t have the easiest path in the world, since he’ll face Ryan Harrison, who took a set off him in Memphis, in round 2, and then Fernando Verdasco, Feliciano Lopez, and Murray. That said, the newly Japanese No. 1 has moved beyond emerging superstar status into pure superstar since last season, following up his career year in 2014 with an ATP title in Memphis, a final in Acapulco, a quarterfinal in Melbourne, and a semifinal in Brisbane. Nishikori has avoided any shocking defeats, and he continues to improve overall against the world’s best, while dealing with all the pressure on him quite well, both from his home Japanese fans, and those abroad. If you’re looking for a player who could take the title outside Novak Djokovic or Roger Federer, Nishikori should be the third favorite for it, and he is due for a Masters title at some point this season.

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5: Tommy Robredo

Robredo doesn’t have a difficult section as the No. 17 seed, with Andrey Golubev or Dustin Brown up first, and then the Nick Kyrgios/Grigor Dimitrov winner. He beat Kyrgios at the US Open, and Dimitrov is struggling, while Golubev and Brown are unpredictable but struggle more often than they play well. All that said, age appears to be catching up with the almost 33-year-old Spaniard. He suffered an abductor injury at the start of the season in Auckland, and since then he has not won consecutive matches at any tournament, even on clay where he normally plays well. He has a loss to challenger journeyman Andreas Haider-Maurer on his record, and there has been a noted decline in his quality of play since reaching those two ATP finals he lost to Andy Murray last fall (Shenzhen and Valencia).

4: John Isner

Even with a favorable head-to-head record against his likely round three opponent Kevin Anderson, and home crowd support as the top American and a former finalist at Indian Wells, Isner is almost assured to exit within the first two rounds. He has been in sharp decline this season, with losses to the likes of Marinko Matosevic in straight sets at Delray Beach, and James Ward in Davis Cup over the past month. His footwork appears to have declined, while he’s choosing to play extremely passive, slice and dice tennis that is allowing his opponents to pick him apart, even with the big serve he possesses. There are multiple Americans such as Tim Smyczek and Steve Johnson who could perform well at Indian Wells this year, but Isner is not one of them.

3: Fabio Fognini

Fognini has yet to win a hard-court match this season, as he has been dreadful on the surface since the US Open. Most recently, the charismatic Italian choked away Italy’s Davis Cup hopes in a live fifth rubber against Challenger-level player Aleksandr Nedovyesov. Fognini did find some form on South American clay, reaching the Rio final, but he’s back on a three-match losing streak, and his first opponent is likely to be the player who dismantled him at the US Open, Adrian Mannarino.

2: Ernests Gulbis

Gulbis is currently on a seven-match losing streak dating back to last season (0-5 in 2015), and he hasn’t won a set of tennis in his last three matches against non-top-30 players Dominic Thiem, Jeremy Chardy, and Denis Istomin. He has openly stated he has no confidence in his game right now, and his flow and rhythm is in ruins. His losing streak should move to eight against the big-serving Sam Groth in his opening match. Groth’s steady diet of massive serves is not a good recipe for Gulbis to develop feel and improve the consistency of his game as the match goes on

1: Grigor Dimitrov

Dimitrov has been lacking in passion and instinct with his tennis this season, and he’s due to suffer an early exit from the 2015 BNP Paribas Open. The top-15 young gun is slated to face the winner of Nick Kyrgios vs. Denis Kudla in round 2, and if Kyrgios is healthy and fit, he should be the favorite in their first meeting. Dimitrov has suffered uncharacteristic losses to Gilles Muller and Ryan Harrison in his last two tournaments, including a third-set bagel to Harrison who is ranked outside the top 80. Dimitrov has also failed to play well against top players, while having to scrape through matches against non-top 30 players whom he should be beating with relative ease.