Paolini defeats Rybakina 7-6, 6-4 on debut in Riyadh at the WTA Finals

The beginning of the end commenced in Riyadh, Saudia Arabia as the world’s elite eight gathered for the season-ending championships. Ten months ago, Elena Rybakina was firing on all cylinders, winning in Brisbane (d. Sabalenka) and Abu Dhabi (d. Kasatkina) and at the WTA 1000 in Dubai, lost via walkover to eventual champion, Jasmine Paolini from Italy.

The twenty-five-year-old reached two additional finals both at the 1000 level (Doha and Miami) before triumphing on the dirt at the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix in Stuttgart where en route to the final, she conquered Paolini in the quarters in three. The Italian would exact revenge, however, on the grand slam stage at Roland Garros with a three-set victory in the quarters.

Paolini, three years older, began the year just inside the top thirty and now is at a career-high rank of four. In a stellar season, she won her first WTA 1000 title in Dubai and reached two consecutive grand slam finals at the French Open (l. Swiatek) and Wimbledon (l. Krejcikova).

While Paolini may have run out of gas since the end of summer, Rybakina pulled the plug following the grass court season due to a litany of injuries and illnesses. She is competing for the first time since New York and, without a coach.

Agenzia Fotogramma / Ipa

Yesterday, the 2022 Wimbledon champion announced she had hired the 2001 Wimbledon champion Goran Ivanisevic. The former world #2 and coach of Novak Djokovic is not in Riyadh but will commence the partnership next month.

The current world #5 is competing in her 2nd WTA Finals, Paolini her first. Paolini led the head-to-head 3-2 securing two of the three via walkover and mid-match retirement.

The Italian and #4 seed won the toss and elected to serve. She made 4/6 first serves and held to 30 while Rybakina hit three consecutive winners including two aces to level.

Paolini led 40-15 following a brilliant backhand down the line but faced deuce before holding while Rybakina made 3/4 first serves and held at love for 2-2. Paolini struck her first ace and double fault and held despite facing three deuces and break point.

Rybakina ruing her inability to break, gifted her first double fault and dumped serve. Paolini missed 3/6 first serves and with a mishit backhand, gave back the break. Rybakina serving with new balls hit two consecutive winners including another ace and consolidated the break for 4-4.

Paolini faced another break point and deuce but held with three consecutive first serves. Rybakina serving to stay in the set opened with an ace up the tee and with another, leveled at five. Paolini donated another double fault and faced three deuces and break point yet held with an outstanding display of defense and offense.

Rybakina once again served to stay in the set and force the breaker. Although she missed 5/6 first serves, she struck two spectacular winners and held to 30 for 6-6.

Paolini raced to a 6-2 lead following a slew of errors from her opponent but Rybakina extracted two of her own and clawed back to 5-6. The Italian converted her remaining set point when Rybakina mishit another forehand.   

Rybakina served first in the second and though she faced double break point and two deuces, held with four spectacular winners including her sixth ace. Paolini faced break point and deuce in her opening service game but held following an errant backhand from Rybakina.

The 5th seed opened the third with her seventh ace and held easily to 15 with a crisp backhand volley. Paolini serving with new balls, missed 5/6 first serves yet held to 30 for 2-2. Rybakina ripped two forehand winners – down the line and inside-in to lead 3-2 while Paolini held to love to level.

Rybakina missed 3/5 first serves, faced triple break point, and dumped serve when she netted a slice backhand. Paolini pumped and eager to consolidate, hit two winners including her second ace on game point for 5-3.

Rybakina serving to stay in the match missed 3/5 first serves yet held to 15 with a remarkable forehand pass down the line. Paolini reached double match point with a fantastic crosscourt forehand and converted when Rybakina whiffed another backhand.

Rybakina was rusty, rigid but respectable. She struck 8 aces, and 1 double fault and won 69% of first and 57% of second serve points. She saved 3/5 break points while converting 1/5. She was formidable when returning, winning 30% of first and 44% of second serve return points. While she hit more than double the winners of Paolini (27/12) she gifted thirty-four more unforced errors (56/22).

It was a thoughtful and poised performance from Paolini on event debut. She won 70% of first and 56% of second serve points and saved 4/5 break points while converting 2/5. While she lacks the height and baseline power of her opponent, she is mentally resilient and athletically gifted.

Given Rybakina’s formidable serve, the Italian did well to win 31% of first and 43% of second serve return points. Alongside her compatriot Sara Errani, she is also competing in the doubles event.

In the round-robin competition, she will face the 2024 Australian Open finalist and Olympic gold medalist Qinwen Zheng while Rybakina takes on world #1, Aryna Sabalenka.